The Institutional Risk Analyst

Every residential mortgage loan made in 2020-2021 is likely to be underwater by the end of 2023

The big news this week starts with the poor showing by Rocket Companies (RKT), reporting a loss for Q3 2022 and a big decline in volumes.

Like COOP, volumes are down dramatically from 2021 but MSR values and cash flows from servicing are rising

Despite the outlook for the industry, COOP continues to be one of the better performing names in our mortgage surveillance group.

Little attention is being paid to the collateral damage being done by the FOMC to the debt capital markets

Will the market risk created by quantitative tightening (QT) tip over a large bank or nonbank financial firm?

A number of readers have asked us to talk about the winners and losers among large banks in the current interest rate environment.

The nightmare scenario in the government loan market is that FHA loan delinquency rises to the point where issuers become insolvent

The entire mortgage industry will have a single point of failure with the ICE/BKI combination

If the merger of Black Knight and Intercontinental Exchange goes through, the expanded ICE monopoly will simply give POS tools away for free

The banks have left the government market. Now Ginnie Mae seems bound and determined to drive the IMBs out of government lending as well

The deflation of 2023 is about marking down all types of real assets to the price level that equates with a non-QE world.

Since Block has not yet changed its ticker symbol, perhaps Mr. Dorsey will eventually change the company's name back to Square...

We agree with the assessment by Leon Cooperman of COOP management that this firm is one of the best positioned IMBs in the industry...

The real message to the FOMC is this: hike another 75bp in July and then let the Fed funds target sit for a few meetings...

The good news for BAC and other banks is that there is a discernable lift underway on the yield of bank balance sheets

NRZ must pay $400 million to Fortress to end the relationship with the external manager, a final act of squeezing NRZ shareholders

Issuing CMOs via the GSEs could help the FOMC out of its trading mess, but represents a monumental irony.

We see an at least equal chance that margins will get squeezed for agency and MSR investors before they expand via higher interest rates

Market risk realized today becomes credit risk tomorrow...