The Institutional Risk Analyst

Kevin Hassett's comments on Federal Reserve independence may have undercut his chances for the top Fed job. President Donald Trump has observed in recent days that there are “two Kevins,” Hassett and former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, who we personally support.

As and when the home price correction finally arrives ~ 2028, many of the conventional loans written since 2020 are likely to be underwater vs the collateral.  The GSEs will be looking for reasons to reject loans. After all, FHFA Director Bill Pulte is in the loan insurance business.

Suffice to say that while the economy may be showing signs of growing stress, the bid for risk assets and particularly income-producing assets remains quite brisk. There are literally dozens of nonbank issuers accessing the debt markets well-below double digit yields.

Citi seems to be tracking the group now, whereas pre-COVID the stock significantly underperformed in terms of market beta. But performance?

The mood in the Dallas mortgage community is subdued, much like the atmosphere after an especially good party.

This week we speak with Stan Middleman, founder and CEO of Freedom Mortgage, about the US economy and the outlook for residential mortgages