The Institutional Risk Analyst

As we note in a recent article published by The Daily Reckoning, “The Bezzel: Is it 1925 All Over Again?,” that tales of woe regarding the Fed-fueled credit boom in commercial real estate and private credit will continue to grow in number in 2026.  When it comes to fraud, cockroaches are an inconvenience, but wharf rats carry the plague and are an existential threat.

Below we set up Goldman, Morgan Stanley and the other asset gatherers as we go into Q3 2025 earning this week.  As you might expect, GS is ahead of where it was a year ago in terms of non-interest income, earnings overall and equity market value.

Some of the largest banks by assets have dropped from the top quartile into the bottom half of the distribution for the top 100 banks

As and when GS can exit the loss leading credit card relationship with AAPL, the performance of the business should improve significantly.

SCHW needs to take advantage of their strong operating leverage and repair some needless damage done during COVID by inept bank management.

The larger banks led the way in January and February, but today the top 25 names in terms of total return include many smaller banks.

The public behavior and decision-making processes of SoftBank suggest that the organization is in trouble.

If you agree with our view that the short-selling of the stock was mistaken, then the discount for SCHW is unwarranted.

Total noncore funding at GS was over $700 billion at the end of Q1 2022 vs $321 billion for MS.