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The Institutional Risk Analyst


Why Does United Wholesale Mortgage Sell Low Coupon MSRs?
So why would a firm like CrossCountry or UWMC be a buyer of higher coupon MSRs? The short answer is that they believe their ability to retain the borrower by recapturing a prepayment will offset the obvious negative of high prepayments that comes with a lower interest rate environment. These firms, it seems, would rather try to recapture prepayments on higher rate MSRs than own lower coupons and benefit from the stable cash flow from the servicing.
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Sep 307 min read


Interest Rates, Crypto Tokens & Mortgage Servicing Rights
The number of very late people running into Bitcoin and other tokens over the past year only makes us realize that there is nothing new in the world of finance. Had Jim Fisk and Jay Gould traded crypto tokens like Bitcoin over the past decade, they'd have gotten out in 2013.
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Aug 48 min read


Trump to Fire Jay Powell? No. Bank Earnings? Nada. Bayview for Sale?
President Trump will not try to fire Chairman Powell. Why not? First, because Powell cannot be removed save for malfeasance. Second, because firing Powell would seriously piss off Senate Republicans, killing Trump's hopes for tax legislation this year.
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Apr 226 min read


Is Ameriprise Overvalued? Is PennyMac Cheap vs the REITs?
We think it is notable that AMP has underperformed the other members of the group other than SCHW over the past year.
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Feb 37 min read


Residential Mortgage Finance 2025
The majority of the actual cash profit generated from residential lending is found in the mortgage servicing rights (MSRs).
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Jan 2012 min read


Kamikaze GSE Release? Oh Yeah...
Yes, that's right, we are going to downgrade $8 trillion in GSE MBS and hundreds of billions in corporate debt.
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Dec 10, 202415 min read


Update: Block Inc, Nu Holdings & Guild Holdings
Notice that SQ co-founder Jack Dorsey styles himself as "block head" in the corp roster, a silly affectation that does not help the stock
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Nov 15, 20247 min read


Fiat Currencies, GSEs & Presidents
Could President elect Donald Trump be facing a maxi market correction before inauguration day?
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Nov 13, 20246 min read


Is Trump Bullish for Interest Rates? Pump & Dump for GSE and Fintech Stocks
You can tell lies and damn lies about the idea of releasing Fannie and Freddie, but the SEC and FINRA cannot and will not say a word.
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Oct 30, 20246 min read


Housing Finance Outlook; PennyMac, Mr. Cooper & NYCB/Flagstar
NYCB and the unsold rent-stabilized assets left over from the failure of SBNY are two little surprises waiting for the next POTUS.
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Oct 28, 20249 min read


Citigroup + (Cenlar - Black Knight) = ?
The Citi decision to exit mortgage servicing perhaps made sense in 2017, but today not so much.
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Oct 9, 20247 min read


GSE Release Under Trump? Post-Rate Cut Margin Calls??
Why should a private Fannie Mae be a 20% risk weight under Basel III, but PFSI or Mr. Cooper (COOP) are 100%?
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Sep 22, 20248 min read


Yellen's FSOC: Housing Policy Dreams vs Mortgage Market Reality
Yellen's proposal for a backstop is merely a canard to help Treasury avoid another fiasco next time a Ginnie Mae issuer fails
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Jul 30, 20246 min read


Update: CapitalOne Financial & PennyMac Financial Services
Of note, PFSI has been growing share in wholesale, a direct challenge to UWMC
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Jul 25, 20245 min read


Portfolio Update & Mortgage Survivors
The survivors in mortgage finance optimize operations around purchasing loans from brokers/ correspondents, and direct to consumer (DTC)
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May 8, 20246 min read


Debt Deflation in CRE? PFSI, COOP & RKT
If the run-of-the-mill Republic First interest rate mark is 13.3% of assets that is not just wiping out one bank’s 8% capital but also FDIC
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May 5, 20249 min read


Update: UWMC & Rocket; Rate Cut Dreams Fade
Industry leaders believe that the FHFA wants the GSEs to offer issuers "repurchase insurance" to the tune of 25bps per loan.
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Feb 29, 20247 min read


Assume Loss Given Default > 100% | PennyMac & Western Alliance Bank
Q: What do Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, Signature Bank and New York Community Bank have in common? Auditor, KPMG.
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Feb 4, 202410 min read


Rates Rally Financials, But Credit Fears Remain
The key term for risk managers and investors in 2024 remains unchanged from this year: Volatility.
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Dec 15, 20237 min read


Stocks, Interest Rates and Reverse RPs
Simply stated, with T-bills trading significantly above the yield on RRPs, there is no reason for MMFs to leave cash at the Fed
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Dec 8, 20234 min read
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