The Institutional Risk Analyst

Over the past 30 days, both gold and silver prices have experienced a notable upward trend, recovering from mid-July dips to close higher in early August near $4,340–$4,400/oz for gold and $63–$64/oz for silver, driven by shifting Federal Reserve policy outlooks and economic data. As rising inflation pressures LT interest rates, we expect to see both gold and silver prices recover from the July lows. As attention increases to the deteriorating fiscal situation of the US...

Of course, in the muddled markets at present, there are a number of low-scoring banks which have done relatively well in recent weeks. The parent company of tiny Merchants Bank of Indiana, Merchants Bancorp (MBIN), for example, saw its stock price rise significantly in early 2026, 2x the S&P 500 over the past year, driven primarily by its inclusion in a major index and strong financial performance.

This change in posture by President Trump opens the way for Kevin Warsh to be confirmed by the Senate perhaps by May 15th. More important, it provides a way for Powell to retire, which opens a second governor seat on the Board. Big question: Even with the investigation by the DOJ ended, does the Trump White House have the votes to get Warsh confirmed?

If you figure that the seven year portion of the Treasury curve is around 4% today, a nearly 7% yield on EverBank's NDFI loan book seems pretty risky. But in fact the average yield on this loan category was over 10% for all 100 plus banks in Peer Group 1. So while EverBank certainly has a concentration in NDFI lending, it is not the highest yield. JPMorgan (JPM) was 5.9% in Q3, putting the House of Morgan in the 80th percentile of Peer Group 1.

Once again, the management of TWO seems to have managed to destroy shareholder value in great bloody chunks. Given that the mortgage servicing rights of TWO had a book value of $2.4 billion at the end of Q4, it seems fair to ask whether the best trade for TWO shareholders is to vote against the merger with UWMC and simply sell the MSR.

The equity of many banks traded off in January following Q4 2025 earnings. The earnings were not bad by any means, but some investors seemingly decided to take profits after a remarkable run in banks stocks going back to last October.

Joe Otting does not seem to understand the value of the Flagstar correspondent lending and mortgage servicing business...

When you hear people talking about the Fed tapering QE next year, you know they are behind the proverbial curve.

Remembering that former Fed Chairs Bernanke/Yellen et al dispensed with the inverse relationship between stocks and bonds as a result of QE, the next surge for the exit may look different from December. When we see all of the yields on the Treasury curve heading higher, this under the dead weight of new issuance, then the great unwind in equities may also accelerate.

Goldman Sachs is basically a broker-dealer with a small bank in tow. When you compare the net interest margin of GS with its peers, for example, the other members of Peer Group 1 defined by the FFIEC reported NIM of 3.28% vs 0.41% for GS in Q1’18. Because the bank unit of GS is so small, the overall NIM for the group is 1/10th of its peers compared with total assets.

But should the bank stumble in a way that surprises Europe’s distracted politicians, look for a very hastily planned merger. Our candidate for the first zombie merger of the 21st Century: DB plus Citigroup (C). Neither bank has a particularly strong domestic banking business or funding base, but there are some interesting asymmetries. Financially it would be a disaster for shareholders, but politically it makes all the sense in the world -- especially if you are Angela Mer

Citigroup: Expanding Multiples, Flat Margins

The IRA is writing today from Camp Kotok, which is held each year at Leen’s Lodge in Grand Lake Stream, Maine. We are in Washington County, which is on the border of New Brunswick, Canada, and about 200 miles north of Bangor up Rt 9. This is Down East Maine, the land of Thoreau with rolling hills and lots of beautiful rivers and lakes.

May 22, 2017 | In this issue of The Institutional Risk Analyst, we speak to Sanjiv Das, CEO of Lonestar’s Caliber Home Loans, a home mortgage originator and servicer established in 2013 by the merger of Caliber Funding and Vericrest Financial. Prior to joining Caliber, Das served as Executive Vice President, Global Financial Solutions at First Data Corporation (NYSE:FDC), where he led the international business and played an instrumental role in taking the company public. H

April 6, 2017 | JPMorgan (JPM) boss Jamie Dimon says there’s something wrong with the US economy and he is obviously right. Here’s our short list: * too much public and private debt * too little income and growth * monopolies in banking and other industries * oppressive regulation for all businesses * political muddle and lack of national purpose * confused, irrational monetary policy A couple of weeks before Mr. Dimon was waxing effusive on the state of the American pol

New York --- Mohamed A. El-Erian’s day job is Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, but he is also a key indicator – a canary -- for the financial establishment. In his latest post on Project Syndicate, “America’s Confidence Economy,” El-Erian states the obvious, namely that the financial bubble created by the election of Donald Trump is deflating. “[S]entiment is not always an accurate gauge of actual economic developments and prospects,” he says with considerable understatem