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Update: Citigroup Fights for Credibility
Citigroup picked up almost 10 points of book value since the end of Q3 2023.
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Dec 21, 20237 min read


Stocks, Interest Rates and Reverse RPs
Simply stated, with T-bills trading significantly above the yield on RRPs, there is no reason for MMFs to leave cash at the Fed
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Dec 8, 20234 min read


Update: Flying Fintechs & Zombie Banks
COIN has been helped by a groundswell of positive comment about crypto in 2023...
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Nov 29, 20236 min read


Update: Bank of America
If you conduct a fire sale analysis of BAC's balance sheet as of Q3 2023, the result more than wipes out the bank's tangible equity
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Nov 8, 20235 min read


Bank Earnings Takeaways -- JPM, WFC and Citi
Bank earnings can be best described as cautiously mediocre, but as usual the Street proclaimed that three banks "beat the estimates"
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Oct 15, 20237 min read


SoftBank as Systemic Event; Update: Charles Schwab & Co
The public behavior and decision-making processes of SoftBank suggest that the organization is in trouble.
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Sep 27, 20239 min read


Bank Industry Review & Survey Q3 2023
The US banking industry has seen now two consecutive down quarters for net income caused by the Fed’s massive open market operations
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Sep 11, 20233 min read


Winter is Coming in Bank Credit
If a bank has 6% debt to assets, what is the equity of the parent BHC worth?
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Sep 1, 20236 min read


Update: Goldman Sachs + Citigroup; Interest Rates Higher Longer?
We continue to believe that combining Citi and GS may make sense in terms of consolidating two capital markets businesses
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Aug 23, 20236 min read


Bank Earnings: JPM, WFC & Citi
JPM has an impressive lead in earnings and growth over WFC and C, neither one of which is positioned to catch up with Jamie Dimon in 2023.
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Jul 15, 20235 min read


Top Five Banks: JPMorgan Leads the Pack
JPM is really a large mutual fund with a bank attached, as shown in the table below.
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Jul 3, 20237 min read


PacWest Bancorp & Fed Hawks
To survive long-term, both WAL and PACW need to get that beta back down below 2 and closer to 1, but the hawks on the FOMC may not cooperate
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May 23, 20237 min read


Funding & Credit: Q1 2023 Bank Earnings Takeaways
The issue is not whether your bank is getting smaller, but whether credit expenses are being managed as funding costs inevitably rise.
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Apr 17, 20234 min read


Q1 2023 Bank Earnings: Lower for Longer | JPM USB C WFC BAC
Given that the US Treasury is paying 4% for 90-day T-bills, you can see how far banks have to go to become competitive on rates
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Apr 12, 20238 min read


Powell's Duration Trap, Banks and the US Treasury
The Fed by definition cannot make a profit and is always an expense to the Treasury, thus operating losses are a expense to the taxpayer
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Apr 9, 202312 min read


The Return of Credit Risk
Fact is, Dr. Brainard has primary culpability in the growing economic pain being felt around the country.
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Feb 23, 20237 min read


Why the FT is Wrong About Ally Financial
Ally is still more finance company than bank and really has no core deposit base worthy of the name.
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Jan 30, 20237 min read


Update: Bank of America
We hear in the channel that regulators are making their views of future loss probabilities very clear in guidance to the top banks
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Jan 23, 20236 min read


Update: Truist, Charles Schwab, U.S. Bancorp & PNC Financial
The largest banks continue to serve as a haven for refugees from crypto fraud schemes and the fintech swoon, but are not cheap
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Jan 4, 20237 min read


Outliers: CapitalOne, Goldman Sachs & Citigroup
Like most nonbanks (and Goldman Sachs is predominantly a nonbank), volumes are falling and funding costs are rising.
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Dec 20, 20225 min read
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