The Institutional Risk Analyst

Within a couple of months, the supplies of crucial petrochemical inputs currently on the water will be delivered and there will be nothing in the delivery pipeline after that point in time. Refined products are a far greater concern than oil. Kuwait, for example, produces a lot of aviation fuel for the EU. The Saudis are now shipping phosphates by truck to Yanbu, but this is not even a modest replacement for the disrupted supply chain in the Gulf.

The year 2025 was another year of magical thinking ℅ Donald Trump, a man whose mere presence in the room causes everyone else to descend to their most base level. Trump came to Washington as a president who spurned convention and embraced crypto currencies. He rejected New Deal regulation and encouraging greed and self-interest in a way not seen since the years following the Civil War. The impact on financial markets is profound and may continue for some time. 

SOFI is up almost 300% while the Bitcoin futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange are up less than 100%.  Below we provide some thoughts on the banking group as we head into September. 

The proliferation of low- or no-cost coin systems is ultimately negative for established players in nonbank finance and payments, including the major card issuers, as we discuss below.  Still worried about interchange fees?

As and when GS can exit the loss leading credit card relationship with AAPL, the performance of the business should improve significantly.

Direct lenders are the pawnbrokers of the 21st Century for subprime commercial borrowers, usually firms financed via leveraged buyouts.

If a bank has 6% debt to assets, what is the equity of the parent BHC worth?

Given that IMBs now service two-thirds of all 1-4 family residential mortgage loans, the risk to the nonbanks from COVID is growing...