The Institutional Risk Analyst

We think that doing nothing is a fool’s trade, to be blunt, because the next Treasury refunding could pull market yields sharply higher.

The mood in the Dallas mortgage community is subdued, much like the atmosphere after an especially good party.

The public behavior and decision-making processes of SoftBank suggest that the organization is in trouble.

GS has the weakest position in terms of funding of the top-ten banks and no real narrative for the business post-Marcus.

The US banking industry has seen now two consecutive down quarters for net income caused by the Fed’s massive open market operations

Inflation is called a “hidden tax,” but lately the tax is not even barely concealed.

The sad fact is that even with another 2% capital, most US banks are arguably insolvent thanks to the Fed “going big.”

If we assume that asset returns will continue to rise, but that bank funding costs will rise 5x asset returns, then US banks have a problem

If you believe that the Fed is going to keep interest rates at or above current levels through to 2024, then we have a problem....

To survive long-term, both WAL and PACW need to get that beta back down below 2 and closer to 1, but the hawks on the FOMC may not cooperate

Most major banks grew larger during quantitative easing. Now many of these banks will shrink in terms of assets and also earnings in Q1 2023

At the Fed, because “confidence” is considered a factor in “policy,” it is OK to fib and obfuscate about the true cost of monetary policy.

We liked the NYCB + Flagstar story prior to the transaction with the FDIC for the assets and deposits of Signature Bank.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell are another bank failure or two away from returning to the private sector.

We recently added Western Alliance (WAL) and GHLD to our portfolio

By any reasonable standard, Janet Yellen should have already resigned, but not in the strange world of Washington.

Last week not a single member of the Big Media managed to ask Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about the state of the US banking system

Are nonbank mortgage firms a risk to Ginnie Mae? Or is it really the other way around?

The Federal Open Market Committee has arguably lost control of monetary policy and has placed America's banks in grave risk.

CEO Patrick Collison is guiding investors and the media to a $200 million profit in 2023. Selective disclosure??