The Institutional Risk Analyst

Not all banks or companies are the same and not all follow the herd.

Elizabeth Warren and progressives in Congress should support COF's purchase of Discover as a way to compete with monopoly JPMorgan

Volatility remains perhaps the biggest risk factor today, mostly because of a lack of visibility on unexpected risks.

As reflected in the valuations for JPM, WFC and BXMT, institutional investors are still not that concerned about commercial real est losses

The Basel III proposal reflects a view of financial risks facing US banks that is decades out of date and ignores market risk

Simply stated, with T-bills trading significantly above the yield on RRPs, there is no reason for MMFs to leave cash at the Fed

Instead of seeking authority from Congress, Chairman Bernanke and other members of the FOMC merely turned on the public spigot.

We think that doing nothing is a fool’s trade, to be blunt, because the next Treasury refunding could pull market yields sharply higher.

The mood in the Dallas mortgage community is subdued, much like the atmosphere after an especially good party.

The public behavior and decision-making processes of SoftBank suggest that the organization is in trouble.

GS has the weakest position in terms of funding of the top-ten banks and no real narrative for the business post-Marcus.

The US banking industry has seen now two consecutive down quarters for net income caused by the Fed’s massive open market operations

Inflation is called a “hidden tax,” but lately the tax is not even barely concealed.

The sad fact is that even with another 2% capital, most US banks are arguably insolvent thanks to the Fed “going big.”

If we assume that asset returns will continue to rise, but that bank funding costs will rise 5x asset returns, then US banks have a problem

If you believe that the Fed is going to keep interest rates at or above current levels through to 2024, then we have a problem....

To survive long-term, both WAL and PACW need to get that beta back down below 2 and closer to 1, but the hawks on the FOMC may not cooperate

Most major banks grew larger during quantitative easing. Now many of these banks will shrink in terms of assets and also earnings in Q1 2023

At the Fed, because “confidence” is considered a factor in “policy,” it is OK to fib and obfuscate about the true cost of monetary policy.

We liked the NYCB + Flagstar story prior to the transaction with the FDIC for the assets and deposits of Signature Bank.