The Institutional Risk Analyst

We think that doing nothing is a fool’s trade, to be blunt, because the next Treasury refunding could pull market yields sharply higher.

If you conduct a fire sale analysis of BAC's balance sheet as of Q3 2023, the result more than wipes out the bank's tangible equity

Was the breakdown of the normally stable and, indeed, routine workings of the Clearinghouse the result of bad actors?

Rising interest rates are not good for bank earnings or bank equity valuations.

Bank earnings can be best described as cautiously mediocre, but as usual the Street proclaimed that three banks "beat the estimates"

The Powell Fed needs to drop short-term interest rates back down to 4% and leave them there indefinitely.

The legal dispute between Ginnie Mae and Texas Capital Bank makes additional defaults by HECM lenders more likely...

UBS ultimately seems intent upon running off the remaining US mortgage assets, including a few billion in Ginnie Mae MSR financings

The public behavior and decision-making processes of SoftBank suggest that the organization is in trouble.

GS has the weakest position in terms of funding of the top-ten banks and no real narrative for the business post-Marcus.

The Q2 2023 disclosure for PACW suggests an institution that is bleeding cash and operating in extremis...

The US banking industry has seen now two consecutive down quarters for net income caused by the Fed’s massive open market operations

When you are in a big crowd, nothing else matters.

Sadly for the bears in the audience, nothing would make the banks happier than if consumers would use more credit....

We continue to believe that combining Citi and GS may make sense in terms of consolidating two capital markets businesses

With industry losses on every loan closed well north of 200 bp, you might ask yourself why WAL would still be buying conventional loans.

TCBI needs to keep efficiency in the 50s if they want to survive the coming drought in mortgage lending.

So when we ask why large banks are so big, the answer is that the Federal Reserve Board allows large BHCs to use more leverage

We expect to see USB trading at a discount to JPM and Peer Group 1 until the bank improves its operating leverage to pre-COVID levels.

We all dodged a bullet in Q2 2023 because the repricing of assets and deposits slowed from the crazy levels seen at the end of March.