The Institutional Risk Analyst

GS saw loss provisions fall slightly in Q2 2024 to $282 million but the number was still $600 million in the first half of the year...

Notice that the Fed stress test is silent on trillions of dollars in mark-to-market losses facing US banks from COVID-era securities

The larger banks led the way in January and February, but today the top 25 names in terms of total return include many smaller banks.

The Fed bank stress tests are another sign of magical thinking in Washington.

Citigroup leads the pack with a net loss rate of 133 basis points (bp) that is almost five times the average for Peer Group 1 at 27 bp.

Powell won’t hit the two percent target, but he won’t change the target either.

Direct lenders are the pawnbrokers of the 21st Century for subprime commercial borrowers, usually firms financed via leveraged buyouts.

We think it is reasonable to push expectations of a cut in the target for Fed funds into Q1 2025. 

Citi is a subprime lender. They should be directly involved in government lending.

Big banks have big CRE exposures, too. So what drives this marvelous progression up the wall of worry?

Our Bank Top 10 and Top 25 indices continue to outperform the industry benchmarks, but the broader samples show growing financial stress

The yield on BAC's $320 billion commercial and industrial (C&I) book was just 5.4% or more than 150bp below peer at year-end 2023.

McCargo's actions and the fact that the case has not been dismissed in its entirety is very unhelpful given current market conditions.

BAC is in big trouble, not due to credit but because of sub-par asset returns. BAC’s return on assets has fallen to just 0.8% in Q1 2024

The fixation with the idea of resolving large zombie banks without public expense is evidence of our collective delusion. 

You take the GSEs out of conservatorship, the big banks led by JPMorgan and U.S. Bancorp will own the conventional loan market

Only in the strange confines of Washington do you still find people who think that the federal budget deficit is not a problem.

BK and Vanguard are above the 4.9% legal limit on ownership of voting shares of a bank. This fact gives the FDIC et al the power...

We see higher credit costs, narrowing NIM and still rising funding costs squeezing the banking industry in Q1 2024...

If Mr. Otting et al do try to execute a community bank redux in the New York market, then we'd be inclined to exit the stock.