February 25, 2022 | With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the financial markets will quickly become comfortable with Vladimir Putin’s naked aggression and focus anew on the Federal Open Market Committee. What the FOMC does or does not do in the next few months will have a big impact on markets and economies around the world. Besides rising interest rates, the big story in the US is the growing recession in housing finance, a dramatic reversal that could impact the macro outlook for US jobs and growth in 2022. Banks and nonbanks alike are desperately trimming expenses to right size headcount to falling revenues. Just watch the job postings for loan underwriters on the major career portals and you get an idea of the scale of the adjustment now underway. Below for subscribers to our Premium Service, we review results for several industry bellwethers and comment on interest rate trends more generally.
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