The Institutional Risk Analyst

Owners of crypto tokens hold nothing except an option to sell their flutter to a greater fool. The real worry for the future is that another financial debacle — à la FTX — where crypto was revealed to be pure fraud will surprise the markets as burned punters flee their speculations. The fact that crypto prices are increasingly being supported by stock issuance and schemes like perpetual futures contracts (Perps) suggests the end of the game is nigh.

Suffice to say that while the economy may be showing signs of growing stress, the bid for risk assets and particularly income-producing assets remains quite brisk. There are literally dozens of nonbank issuers accessing the debt markets well-below double digit yields.

Citi has grown corporate loans 10% to $330 million at the end of Q2 2025. In fact, Citi increased its full-year net interest income guidance and raised its revenue forecast to the high end of its previous range. Citi saw assets and NII grow in 2025, but efficiency remained in the low 60s, a tangible indication that Fraser is making progress.

Truth is, it’s hard to see the leadership of either RITM or UWMC combining with another entity, but the cost pressures in the industry today are driving radical change. 

We expect to see continued consolidation in the world of residential mortgage finance in coming months. The sad fact is that many less competitive businesses in mortgage finance have been waiting for the FOMC to ride to the rescue with lower interest rates. If rate cuts do not materialize in 2025, however, then many of these businesses may not survive.

“The boards of the GSEs don’t have a fiduciary duty to the Enterprises,” Pulte noted. “They have a fiduciary duty to the conservatorship.”

While GHLD provides a lot of good information about their business, the investor disclosure provided by UWMC is a bad joke, especially when you remember that UWMC is the largest nonbank lender in the US. The Q1 2025 press release is just 9 pages in length and lacks some of the most basic financial information available from UWMC’s peers.

When President Donald Trump says the Fed should cut interest rates, he is probably right – at least speaking from the perspective of the real estate markets.

The Trump budget package is priority number one on Capitol Hill, but odds of the big tax bill passing are falling every day. The White House still needs 25 votes in the House and May is upon us.

President Trump will not try to fire Chairman Powell. Why not? First, because Powell cannot be removed save for malfeasance. Second, because firing Powell would seriously piss off Senate Republicans, killing Trump's hopes for tax legislation this year.

Who are the two most powerful people in the Trump White House?

COOP and RKT, plus RDFN, creates an integrated business of realty, lending, servicing and asset management that is impressive

A more efficient mortgage backed securities market benefits everyone by lowering mortgage rates and making home ownership more affordable.

If we consider the larger picture, we already have years of pent-up credit expenses awaiting realization, but add to the sauce Donald Trump.

There is an old rule on Wall Street that industry sectors like airlines and auto manufacturers are trades rather than investments...

Folks in the financial sector are beginning to wonder if certain parts of the government apparatus will continue to function.

We think it is notable that AMP has underperformed the other members of the group other than SCHW over the past year.

When President Donald Trump says that interest rates are too high, he may not fully understand just how right he is about the cost of credit

The majority of the actual cash profit generated from residential lending is found in the mortgage servicing rights (MSRs).

Cute reference to "average cost," but total return to date would be of greater interest.