The Institutional Risk Analyst

As and when the home price correction finally arrives ~ 2028, many of the conventional loans written since 2020 are likely to be underwater vs the collateral.  The GSEs will be looking for reasons to reject loans. After all, FHFA Director Bill Pulte is in the loan insurance business.

Truth is, it’s hard to see the leadership of either RITM or UWMC combining with another entity, but the cost pressures in the industry today are driving radical change. 

We expect to see continued consolidation in the world of residential mortgage finance in coming months. The sad fact is that many less competitive businesses in mortgage finance have been waiting for the FOMC to ride to the rescue with lower interest rates. If rate cuts do not materialize in 2025, however, then many of these businesses may not survive.

“The boards of the GSEs don’t have a fiduciary duty to the Enterprises,” Pulte noted. “They have a fiduciary duty to the conservatorship.”

While GHLD provides a lot of good information about their business, the investor disclosure provided by UWMC is a bad joke, especially when you remember that UWMC is the largest nonbank lender in the US. The Q1 2025 press release is just 9 pages in length and lacks some of the most basic financial information available from UWMC’s peers.

The Trump budget package is priority number one on Capitol Hill, but odds of the big tax bill passing are falling every day. The White House still needs 25 votes in the House and May is upon us.

President Trump will not try to fire Chairman Powell. Why not? First, because Powell cannot be removed save for malfeasance. Second, because firing Powell would seriously piss off Senate Republicans, killing Trump's hopes for tax legislation this year.

Who are the two most powerful people in the Trump White House?

COOP and RKT, plus RDFN, creates an integrated business of realty, lending, servicing and asset management that is impressive

The majority of the actual cash profit generated from residential lending is found in the mortgage servicing rights (MSRs).

Selling the Treasury's control position in the GSEs while dragging the furious shareholders along behind is not an attractive opportunity

Yes, that's right, we are going to downgrade $8 trillion in GSE MBS and hundreds of billions in corporate debt.

BLND is generating operating leverage via cost reductions, another way of saying that management is slowly winding up the business.

Could President elect Donald Trump be facing a maxi market correction before inauguration day?

NYCB and the unsold rent-stabilized assets left over from the failure of SBNY are two little surprises waiting for the next POTUS.

In opposing Basel III, Chopra is doing the bidding of Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) but big banks are very happy to have no rule at all.

The Citi decision to exit mortgage servicing perhaps made sense in 2017, but today not so much.

Why should a private Fannie Mae be a 20% risk weight under Basel III, but PFSI or Mr. Cooper (COOP) are 100%?

If you were really, REALLY going to do mortgage warehouse lending in today's market, KEY would be the better platform, not BNS.

Yellen's proposal for a backstop is merely a canard to help Treasury avoid another fiasco next time a Ginnie Mae issuer fails