The Institutional Risk Analyst

Citigroup picked up almost 10 points of book value since the end of Q3 2023.

What does PNC tell us now about commercial loan exposures in 2024?

If you conduct a fire sale analysis of BAC's balance sheet as of Q3 2023, the result more than wipes out the bank's tangible equity

Was the breakdown of the normally stable and, indeed, routine workings of the Clearinghouse the result of bad actors?

Rising interest rates are not good for bank earnings or bank equity valuations.

We expect to see USB trading at a discount to JPM and Peer Group 1 until the bank improves its operating leverage to pre-COVID levels.

JPM has an impressive lead in earnings and growth over WFC and C, neither one of which is positioned to catch up with Jamie Dimon in 2023.

If the FOMC raises the target rate for fed funds further, then banks like CMA are likely to come under renewed selling pressure.

With inflation fears moderating, look for Buy Side managers to buy bank stocks – even if earnings remain constrained...

Given that the US Treasury is paying 4% for 90-day T-bills, you can see how far banks have to go to become competitive on rates

The Fed by definition cannot make a profit and is always an expense to the Treasury, thus operating losses are a expense to the taxpayer

Most major banks grew larger during quantitative easing. Now many of these banks will shrink in terms of assets and also earnings in Q1 2023

We hear in the channel that regulators are making their views of future loss probabilities very clear in guidance to the top banks

But nothing lasts forever in mortgage land or in financials. Stay tuned and pay attention to LT rates and spreads...

The largest banks continue to serve as a haven for refugees from crypto fraud schemes and the fintech swoon, but are not cheap

How will this above-peer performer from Little Rock do in a Fed-induced recession that rivals 2008 in terms of market losses?

With the Fed doubling down on rate increases, the pressure on all manner of nonbank finance companies and fintech platforms is growing.

A number of readers have asked us to talk about the winners and losers among large banks in the current interest rate environment.

Investors who were buying large caps at 2x book value a year ago are now running away from bank stocks just as fundamentals improve...

The good news for BAC and other banks is that there is a discernable lift underway on the yield of bank balance sheets