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The Institutional Risk Analyst


Housing Finance Outlook; PennyMac, Mr. Cooper & NYCB/Flagstar
NYCB and the unsold rent-stabilized assets left over from the failure of SBNY are two little surprises waiting for the next POTUS.
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Oct 28, 20249 min read


Q1 2023 Bank Earnings: Lower for Longer | JPM USB C WFC BAC
Given that the US Treasury is paying 4% for 90-day T-bills, you can see how far banks have to go to become competitive on rates
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Apr 12, 20238 min read


Update: New York Community Bank
We liked the NYCB + Flagstar story prior to the transaction with the FDIC for the assets and deposits of Signature Bank.
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Mar 26, 202310 min read


FOMC Doubles Down on Market Risk
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell are another bank failure or two away from returning to the private sector.
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Mar 23, 20236 min read


QE & the Yellen Banking Crisis
By any reasonable standard, Janet Yellen should have already resigned, but not in the strange world of Washington.
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Mar 14, 20238 min read


Silvergate, Reverse RPs and the “Theology of Prosperity”
Crypto, of course, is not an asset as much as a bad idea that was given life by Quantitative Easing
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Jan 25, 20238 min read


Update: Crypto Fraud Crumbles as Bank Stocks Surge
Crypto has gone from a sort-of juiced up equity strategy to a distressed credit story in just hours.
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Nov 10, 20225 min read


Interest Rates & Bank Earnings
The good news for BAC and other banks is that there is a discernable lift underway on the yield of bank balance sheets
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Jul 19, 20226 min read


Update: Ally Financial (ALLY)
The 5-year CDS spreads for ALLY were trading 280bp over the swaps curve compared with 120bp for Citigroup (C) & 150bp for CapitalOne
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Jul 13, 20224 min read


Update: US Banks Post-QE
Even as the FOMC raises interest rates, we caution our readers to be prepared for disappointment from banks near term
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Jun 15, 20225 min read


Profile: Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL)
WAL is one the best performing small banks in the US based upon equity market valuations, profits and growth rates
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Oct 22, 20215 min read
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