The Institutional Risk Analyst

As we note in a recent article published by The Daily Reckoning, “The Bezzel: Is it 1925 All Over Again?,” that tales of woe regarding the Fed-fueled credit boom in commercial real estate and private credit will continue to grow in number in 2026.  When it comes to fraud, cockroaches are an inconvenience, but wharf rats carry the plague and are an existential threat.

Below we set up Goldman, Morgan Stanley and the other asset gatherers as we go into Q3 2025 earning this week.  As you might expect, GS is ahead of where it was a year ago in terms of non-interest income, earnings overall and equity market value.

The largest bank loan portfolio increases reported by the FDIC were in loans to non-depository financial institutions and broker-dealer loans to purchase or carry securities, including margin loans. This situation is inherently unstable.

The prospect of Zohran Mamdani becoming Mayor of NYC and the rise of other socialist elements in the Democratic Party means that owners of New York real estate are facing effective expropriation of their property.  And the real losers are New York consumers.

Some of the largest banks by assets have dropped from the top quartile into the bottom half of the distribution for the top 100 banks

GS had not appeared in the top 25 since we began the indices a year ago, while MS had made it three times.

As and when GS can exit the loss leading credit card relationship with AAPL, the performance of the business should improve significantly.

The Citi decision to exit mortgage servicing perhaps made sense in 2017, but today not so much.

SCHW needs to take advantage of their strong operating leverage and repair some needless damage done during COVID by inept bank management.

If you were really, REALLY going to do mortgage warehouse lending in today's market, KEY would be the better platform, not BNS.

Notice that the Fed stress test is silent on trillions of dollars in mark-to-market losses facing US banks from COVID-era securities

The larger banks led the way in January and February, but today the top 25 names in terms of total return include many smaller banks.

One of the effects of QE has been making many banks and real estate investors insolvent, a precursor to debt defaults.

Large universal banks that ply the capital markets and use essentially infinite leverage in the derivatives markets face challenges

Bank earnings can be best described as cautiously mediocre, but as usual the Street proclaimed that three banks "beat the estimates"

The public behavior and decision-making processes of SoftBank suggest that the organization is in trouble.

GS has the weakest position in terms of funding of the top-ten banks and no real narrative for the business post-Marcus.

The US banking industry has seen now two consecutive down quarters for net income caused by the Fed’s massive open market operations

We expect to see USB trading at a discount to JPM and Peer Group 1 until the bank improves its operating leverage to pre-COVID levels.

If you agree with our view that the short-selling of the stock was mistaken, then the discount for SCHW is unwarranted.