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Trumpian Head Fakes & the Certainty of Global Recession
Within a couple of months, the supplies of crucial petrochemical inputs currently on the water will be delivered and there will be nothing in the delivery pipeline after that point in time. Refined products are a far greater concern than oil. Kuwait, for example, produces a lot of aviation fuel for the EU. The Saudis are now shipping phosphates by truck to Yanbu, but this is not even a modest replacement for the disrupted supply chain in the Gulf.
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Mar 235 min read


Jim Rickards: False Narratives in AI & Crypto and the Case for Gold
Jim Rickards: False Narratives in Crypto & AI, and the Case for Gold
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Dec 2, 202513 min read


Wall Street Killed Bitcoin
When Bitcoin was first introduced in 2009, the token and the accompanying blockchain technology was heralded as a new means of exchange and proliferated without much encouragement. It was billed as a replacement for depreciating fiat currencies and the financial system that facilitates the legal tender monopoly of most governments. But instead of being a stable means of exchange and thus an alternative to an ever depreciating fiat dollar, Bitcoin became a vastly profitable sp
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Nov 16, 20259 min read


Q2 Earnings Setup: JPM, BAC, C, PNC, TFC, USB, WFC
We noted in the most recent IRA Bank Book that the Q1 2025 banking industry data from the FDIC was showing improvement in certain commercial line items, particularly non-owner occupied real estate. But is this another head fake by desperate banks trying to conceal rancid commercial real estate exposures?
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Jun 22, 20257 min read


Winter is Coming in Bank Credit
If a bank has 6% debt to assets, what is the equity of the parent BHC worth?
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Sep 1, 20236 min read
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