The Institutional Risk Analyst

As we have said consistently, it is better to own the shares of stronger crypto enablers like HOOD and SOFI than the tokens themselves. It is the enablers who profit at the expense of the remaining true greater. We were watching a fascinating conversation with independent technology analyst and advisor Benedict Evans earlier this week and he made the point that serious technologists have largely abandoned crypto as an area of study.

Most public companies are so invested in the false gospel of AI that they dare not even hint at the truth, namely that the vast majority of AI projects will never be profitable or even relevant. As LeCun notes, consumers will benefit from more robust search tools, but the AI that emerges in the next decade will be too feeble and too fallible to be deployed by business. Recall the costly fiasco of the early AI charade called "Watson" from IBM.

The public mania around stable coins is the latest evidence that humans are incapable of making rational decisions when they are part of a crowd. Long-term, we should view stable coins as marketing tools for large advertisers to acquire and retain customers.

Why is Secretary Bessent talking publicly about Powell or the Fed at all? How does this squawking enhance the credibility of the Trump Administration or the U.S. Treasury?

The intriguing thing about private coin empires is that they are obviously not a positive for existing payment systems, yet neither are they dependent upon crypto. Larger sponsors may be able to create exclusive coin ecosystems without actually touching crypto assets at all. Fiat to AMZN coin, “ZON,” is really all that the sponsor needs.

At one point last year, HOOD was up several hundred percent, but has given back much of those gains. Yet the leaders of our finance group have outperformed the broad market.

And just why do financial firms like HOOD, SoFi Technologies (SOFI) and Block (XYZ) talk about EBITDA in their investor materials?

What happens to the Trump Trade and the broader equity markets if the FOMC passes on a December rate cut?

Are nonbank mortgage firms a risk to Ginnie Mae? Or is it really the other way around?

There is, after all, no free lunch for investors when the Fed is serving the thin meal of Financial Repression