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The Institutional Risk Analyst


Trump & Powell Fiddle as Private Credit Burns
If the Powell FOMC crashes the short-term markets, again, because the Board staff mismanages the required level of liquidity, Powell will need to resign same day but the real loser will be the Trump Administration. Neither the public nor members of Congress will understand who caused the latest market upset, but they will be happy to blame Donald Trump and members of his team.
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Sep 58 min read


Housing Stocks Surge On Rate Cut Hype
As and when the home price correction finally arrives ~ 2028, many of the conventional loans written since 2020 are likely to be underwater vs the collateral. The GSEs will be looking for reasons to reject loans. After all, FHFA Director Bill Pulte is in the loan insurance business.
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Aug 268 min read


Is USA still a "AAA" Credit? Really? Update: Rithm Capital
When interest rates eventually fall those late vintage mortgage loans with 6% coupons will evaporate like spring snow in the sunshine
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May 10, 20238 min read


Atlas Stumbles, Silvergate Wallows; 360 Mortgage v. Fortress (and RITM)
Are nonbank mortgage firms a risk to Ginnie Mae? Or is it really the other way around?
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Mar 6, 20238 min read


New Residential Pivots, Gets "Rithm"
NRZ must pay $400 million to Fortress to end the relationship with the external manager, a final act of squeezing NRZ shareholders
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Jun 22, 20225 min read


Update: New Residential Investment, Fortress & Softbank
The good news is that NRZ is growing and making strides in terms of asset creation and, especially, asset retention.
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Nov 3, 20217 min read
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