The Institutional Risk Analyst

When Bitcoin was first introduced in 2009, the token and the accompanying blockchain technology was heralded as a new means of exchange and proliferated without much encouragement. It was billed as a replacement for depreciating fiat currencies and the financial system that facilitates the legal tender monopoly of most governments. But instead of being a stable means of exchange and thus an alternative to an ever depreciating fiat dollar, Bitcoin became a vastly profitable sp

SOFI is up almost 300% while the Bitcoin futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange are up less than 100%.  Below we provide some thoughts on the banking group as we head into September. 

The number of very late people running into Bitcoin and other tokens over the past year only makes us realize that there is nothing new in the world of finance. Had Jim Fisk and Jay Gould traded crypto tokens like Bitcoin over the past decade, they'd have gotten out in 2013.

If we told you that large cap financials are outperforming both the S&P 500 and bitcoin over the past month, what would you say? 

The intriguing thing about private coin empires is that they are obviously not a positive for existing payment systems, yet neither are they dependent upon crypto. Larger sponsors may be able to create exclusive coin ecosystems without actually touching crypto assets at all. Fiat to AMZN coin, “ZON,” is really all that the sponsor needs.

The common penny stocks of these two appendages of the state, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are up over 600% in the past year, generating huge gains for the likes of Bill Ackman and John Paulson. Bitcoin is up a paltry 50% LTM. Indeed, much like old fintech stocks such as PayPal (PYPL) and Block Inc (XTZ), bitcoin seems to be losing the special novelty that always seems to drive these manic stories. Is bitcoin now just another boring Wall Street ETF?

The paper money economy created by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1933 trapped Americans and the world into using fiat dollars.

Like 2023 and 2024, the year 2025 may end up being relatively stable, yet investors remain worried about stealth externalities.

Notice that SQ co-founder Jack Dorsey styles himself as "block head" in the corp roster, a silly affectation that does not help the stock

In this issue of The Institutional Risk Analyst, we release the latest edition of The IRA Bank Book for Q4 2023

In the short-run rising interest rates and spreads will help bank earnings. But where is the next credit hot spot?

And after the great correction, the dollar will still be the global means of exchange, but Americans will have lost a huge amount of income

Bitcoin and Tether are technologically enabled forms of financial fraud