The Institutional Risk Analyst

Half of COF assets are allocated to consumer loans, with single digits in real estate and C&I exposures. The bank was in the 94th percentile of Peer Group 1 on nonaccrual real estate loans in Q3, the 97th percentile in 90+ day past due C&I loans and the 94th percentile in 90+ day past due for other loans and leases, which includes loans to nonbanks. We expect COF to have high levels of delinquency in its consumer book, but these other credit metrics are a little troubling.

With the FOMC cutting the target for fed funds one quarter point last week, we expect to see funding costs for banks continue to fall, part of the larger narrative that has seen bank loan demand and share repurchases leaving a great deal of dry powder.  Deposits are growing 2x loans, meaning that the balance must go into securities. One of the reasons that lenders of all sorts have been pushing down loan yields is to capture assets in a market that is short quality duration.

Many voices in the media and elsewhere have been predicting an economic slump since 2023. Didn’t happen, but 2025 is very different.

Yes, net loss rates in percentage terms post default are back up to 2010 levels, but the dollar volume of net charge-offs remains very low.

How is Goldman going to extricate itself from this profoundly unattractive business with AAPL without destroying Apple Card?

The big story nobody is discussing is the fact that large banks led by JPM, BAC and TFC continue to sell off briskly

Axos continues to rebound after the bear raid by Hindenburg Research. AX ranked 18th in the WGA Bank Top Index in Q3 2024 vs 98th for SOFI

The first comment to make is that consumer defaults are rising across the board. The only question we need to consider is the rate of change