The Institutional Risk Analyst

Paying interest on reserves has nothing to do with whether banks lend and everything to do with enabling the Fed to manage the Treasury market. If you don’t want the Treasury market to remain open, then take away the Fed’s power to pay interest on reserves.  

If we consider the larger picture, we already have years of pent-up credit expenses awaiting realization, but add to the sauce Donald Trump.

The unrealized losses on COVID era securities remain a huge problem for banks large and small, especially if long-term interest rates rise

When NYC is forced to recognize reality, it will already be too late to avoid another fiscal crisis.

Not all banks or companies are the same and not all follow the herd.

The US banking industry has seen now two consecutive down quarters for net income caused by the Fed’s massive open market operations

With inflation fears moderating, look for Buy Side managers to buy bank stocks – even if earnings remain constrained...

How much of book value do banks lose as the Fed adjusts interest rates to fight inflation?

If we assume that asset returns will continue to rise, but that bank funding costs will rise 5x asset returns, then US banks have a problem

But nothing lasts forever in mortgage land or in financials. Stay tuned and pay attention to LT rates and spreads...

Like most nonbanks (and Goldman Sachs is predominantly a nonbank), volumes are falling and funding costs are rising.

Crypto has gone from a sort-of juiced up equity strategy to a distressed credit story in just hours.

We expect to see reasonably strong earnings for commercial lenders in Q3 2022 as loan yields slowly rise...

Investors who were buying large caps at 2x book value a year ago are now running away from bank stocks just as fundamentals improve...

The deflation of 2023 is about marking down all types of real assets to the price level that equates with a non-QE world.

Just imagine how global markets will react when Putin deploys tactical nuclear weapons in Eastern Ukraine to avoid a military defeat

Simply stated, Morgan Stanley has a much more diverse and sustainable business model than Goldman Sachs...

Will Fed Chairman Jay Powell fold in terms of further rate hikes if the S&P 500 falls 1,000 points in a day?

Many of the startups, investment flows and SPAC transactions that proliferated in 2020-2021 are likely to be casualties in the next several

We add a new dimension of risk to the normalization of US bank earnings with the Russian war against Ukraine.