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The IRA Bank Book Q4 2024
WGA notes that bank stock prices have soared in the second half of 2024, with the WGA Bank Top 10 Index up 40% year-to-date in 2024.
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Dec 16, 20243 min read


Liquidity Preference: SVB Financial Group, WaMu & Reemerging GSEs
Selling the Treasury's control position in the GSEs while dragging the furious shareholders along behind is not an attractive opportunity
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Dec 12, 20247 min read


Kamikaze GSE Release? Oh Yeah...
Yes, that's right, we are going to downgrade $8 trillion in GSE MBS and hundreds of billions in corporate debt.
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Dec 10, 202415 min read


WGA Bank Top 10 Index | Time to Short Financials?
When SCHW surpassed U.S. Bancorp in size in 2021, you knew that SCHW’s leadership had gotten lost.
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Dec 9, 20249 min read


Update: Blend Labs Inc.
BLND is generating operating leverage via cost reductions, another way of saying that management is slowly winding up the business.
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Dec 5, 20244 min read


The Trump Trade & Sovereign Ratings
What happens to the Trump Trade and the broader equity markets if the FOMC passes on a December rate cut?
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Dec 4, 20246 min read


Fed Fiddles as Liquidity Risk Looms
Our bet is that the Bessent "3-3-3" plan likewise will be a failure and that the Fed will be forced to restart QE sooner rather than later
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Nov 26, 20248 min read


Profile: Bank of Hawaii & QE
The asset returns of BOH are substandard vs its peers. We cannot discern any reason for this save management lapses.
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Nov 20, 20246 min read


Trump, Deficits & Credit Default Swaps
As a practical matter, no Fed chairman or governor can function without the support of the White House and the US Treasury.
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Nov 18, 20247 min read


Update: Block Inc, Nu Holdings & Guild Holdings
Notice that SQ co-founder Jack Dorsey styles himself as "block head" in the corp roster, a silly affectation that does not help the stock
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Nov 15, 20247 min read


Fiat Currencies, GSEs & Presidents
Could President elect Donald Trump be facing a maxi market correction before inauguration day?
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Nov 13, 20246 min read


Q: Is JPMorgan Overinflated?
The banking industry has segmented into a handful of above-average performers and JPM is the largest leader of these "winners"
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Nov 11, 20245 min read


Financials: Post-Trump Victory Notes
The changes that are going to occur in Washington over the next four years will be dramatically different than during Trump I.
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Nov 6, 20245 min read


Fed Duration Trap Threatens Banks, SOMA
It’s time for the Fed to get smart on duration risk before circumstances create another money market crisis.
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Nov 1, 20248 min read


Is Trump Bullish for Interest Rates? Pump & Dump for GSE and Fintech Stocks
You can tell lies and damn lies about the idea of releasing Fannie and Freddie, but the SEC and FINRA cannot and will not say a word.
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Oct 30, 20246 min read


Housing Finance Outlook; PennyMac, Mr. Cooper & NYCB/Flagstar
NYCB and the unsold rent-stabilized assets left over from the failure of SBNY are two little surprises waiting for the next POTUS.
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Oct 28, 20249 min read


Powell Overshoots the Runway; Update: American Express & Charles Schwab
Last year, when a lot of people were predicting the demise of SCHW, we told our readers to calm down.
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Oct 23, 20247 min read


Will BRICS Topple the Dollar?
Whenever you hear the magic words "blockchain" and "digital tokens," it's a good guess that whatever follows is nonsense.
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Oct 21, 20245 min read


Update: Citigroup, Bank America and Goldman Sachs
How is Goldman going to extricate itself from this profoundly unattractive business with AAPL without destroying Apple Card?
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Oct 18, 20247 min read


Should TD Bank Rethink US Retail?
WFC is not even out of dodge yet, but TD has cut off the fingers of one hand in yakuza style and is now headed for years of misery
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Oct 16, 20246 min read
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