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Bill Witherall: China and Wall Street – Decoupling or Linking?
China and American are more linked than ever and despite the bluster of President Trump...
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Oct 23, 20205 min read


Artur Meyster: Managing the Risks of Career Change
There are plenty of reasons to leave your current job and change careers, but there are probably even more reasons not to switch your career
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Oct 21, 20203 min read


Bank Profile: Wells Fargo & Co
In this edition of The Institutional Risk Analyst, we assign a neutral risk rating to Wells Fargo & Co, the fourth largest US bank
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Oct 19, 202011 min read


Top Five US Banks: Q3 2020 Earnings Setup
There is a reason why the smart money on Wall Street is creating new strategies focused on non-performing loans...
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Oct 12, 20207 min read


Negative Returns are Now in US Mortgages
Don’t get distracted by the rising rate song from the Street. We don’t look for short or medium term interest rates to rise in the near term
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Oct 7, 20205 min read


The Bear Case for Mortgage Lenders
This week we make the bear case for the housing sector as several more large mortgage issuers announce IPOs....
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Oct 5, 202011 min read


Bank Profile: Ally Financial Inc
ALLY has all of the required attributes for inclusion in The IRA Bank Dead Pool....
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Sep 28, 202011 min read


Asset Inflation Soars as Deflation Persists
The deflationary impact of COVID continues to ripple through the global financial system.
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Sep 24, 20204 min read


Bank Profile: Citigroup
In November 2019 we published a negative risk profile for Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C). We reaffirm the negative risk profile...
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Sep 22, 202012 min read


Powell Fed Embraces Monetary Relativity
The change in the FOMC’s stance also reflects a rebuke to the remaining conservatives within the decidedly left-of-center Fed system...
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Sep 21, 20205 min read


Financial Repression and Inflation Targets
No matter who wins the presidential election in November, have no doubt that Chairman Powell is the most important man in town...
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Sep 14, 20204 min read


Asset Price Inflation with Capital Losses
The FOMC can accelerate lending, but it cannot ameliorate either the negative impact on credit or the torrent of loan prepayments...
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Sep 8, 20204 min read


Xi: Let a Thousand IPOs Bloom
Regardless of who wins the White House in November, the US posture towards Beijing is unlikely to change
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Sep 2, 20206 min read


The IRA Bank Book Q3 2020
Quarterly net income for all FDIC-insured commercial banks fell 70% YOY...
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Aug 31, 202012 min read


Payments, Money Velocity and Bunk
There are many dimensions to the world of payments, some which are banal other that are vitally important
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Aug 24, 20204 min read


LIBOR is Dead. Long Live SOFR! Really?
Why not simply fix the existing LIBOR? Well, that would require the folks at the Fed and other central banks to admit that they were wrong
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Aug 21, 20204 min read


Q-3 2020 Bank/Mortgage Earnings Preview
We expect to see lending volumes slow somewhat for the balance of 2020
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Aug 17, 20207 min read


Risk & Return in the Age of Misgovernance
Falling US consumer spending is an ominous sign
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Aug 11, 20205 min read


Fed Blames Non-banks for Systemic Volatility
March was a classic systemic event characterized by a sudden onset informational asymmetry.
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Aug 4, 20205 min read


Farewell to Modern Monetary Theory
Then things like #QE and #MMT will fade into memory as we embrace the reality of no longer being special...
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Jul 27, 20206 min read
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