The Institutional Risk Analyst

Notice that the Fed stress test is silent on trillions of dollars in mark-to-market losses facing US banks from COVID-era securities

The larger banks led the way in January and February, but today the top 25 names in terms of total return include many smaller banks.

The Fed bank stress tests are another sign of magical thinking in Washington.

In the 1950s through maybe into the late 1990s, the FOMC could control mortgage interest rates....

Powell won’t hit the two percent target, but he won’t change the target either.

The unrealized losses on COVID era securities remain a huge problem for banks large and small, especially if long-term interest rates rise

Obviously, there should be no interest rate cuts by the FOMC without deficit reduction by Congress.

We think it is reasonable to push expectations of a cut in the target for Fed funds into Q1 2025. 

The survivors in mortgage finance optimize operations around purchasing loans from brokers/ correspondents, and direct to consumer (DTC)

Our Bank Top 10 and Top 25 indices continue to outperform the industry benchmarks, but the broader samples show growing financial stress

The yield on BAC's $320 billion commercial and industrial (C&I) book was just 5.4% or more than 150bp below peer at year-end 2023.

BK and Vanguard are above the 4.9% legal limit on ownership of voting shares of a bank. This fact gives the FDIC et al the power...

So what makes the WGA Bank Top 10 unique? Below we provide some quantitative and qualitative comments on each of the ten best US banks

Not all banks or companies are the same and not all follow the herd.

Elizabeth Warren and progressives in Congress should support COF's purchase of Discover as a way to compete with monopoly JPMorgan

Volatility remains perhaps the biggest risk factor today, mostly because of a lack of visibility on unexpected risks.

As reflected in the valuations for JPM, WFC and BXMT, institutional investors are still not that concerned about commercial real est losses

The Basel III proposal reflects a view of financial risks facing US banks that is decades out of date and ignores market risk

Simply stated, with T-bills trading significantly above the yield on RRPs, there is no reason for MMFs to leave cash at the Fed

Instead of seeking authority from Congress, Chairman Bernanke and other members of the FOMC merely turned on the public spigot.