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The IRA Bank Book | Outlook Q2 2022
The sharp rise in bank stocks in 2021 coincided with a surge in operating income due to COVID. Now we reverse that trend in 2022...
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May 29, 20222 min read


FOMC vs TGA; PennyMac Financial & United Wholesale Mortgage
Net, net, the dynamics in the market are actually forcing interest rates down
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May 25, 20229 min read


Equity Market Valuations & Quantitative Tightening
The reduction in the Fed's balance sheet is the largest ever margin call on equity exposures of all descriptions.
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May 23, 20227 min read


Update: Crypto Frauds and Fintech Dreams
Q: What do Elon Musk and Masayoshi Son have in common? Gigantic margin loans...
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May 18, 20226 min read


Interview: Dan Sogorka of Sagent Lending Technologies
The new technology that powers the Sagent-Cooper vision for servicing is already proven in the market
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May 16, 20227 min read


Feldkamp: Paul Volcker, Volatility, Inflation & Honesty
Benevolence, as Chris and I noted in our book "Financial Stability," always gets you more bang for the buck than being miserable.
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May 13, 20225 min read


Where is Value in Fintech?
Take the financials and add some unicorn dust in terms of innovation to the mix and perhaps a double-digit PE ratio for PYPL makes sense.
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May 2, 20225 min read


Update: Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) and Silvergate Corp (SI)
There are virtually no conventional lenders in the US today that are profitable when the sell a loan into the secondary market.
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Apr 22, 20226 min read


Profile: Morgan Stanley vs Goldman Sachs
Simply stated, Morgan Stanley has a much more diverse and sustainable business model than Goldman Sachs...
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Apr 17, 20226 min read


The Next Trade: Banks, Nonbanks and Mortgage Servicing Rights
Many of the startups, investment flows and SPAC transactions that proliferated in 2020-2021 are likely to be casualties in the next several
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Apr 6, 20224 min read


Why the FOMC Cannot Sell its Mortgage Bonds
With MBS prices falling, the FOMC may have to accept the natural runoff rate for the MBS in the SOMA for many years to come
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Mar 31, 20225 min read


Top Five US Banks: USB, JPM, WFC, C & BAC
Valuations for the top five US banks are up slightly as Q1 2022 comes to an end
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Mar 28, 20226 min read


Will SOFR Be the Death of Jay Powell?
If the Fed causes another liquidity crisis as it ends QE and shrinks the balance sheet, then Chairman Powell should immediately resign.
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Mar 21, 20226 min read


QE, Risk Premia and Option Adjusted Spreads
There a brisk debate ongoing in the fixed income markets over how much the Federal Open Market Committee will raise interest rates and when
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Mar 15, 20225 min read


Update: Guild Mortgage
In our view, Guild Mortgage is one of the highest quality businesses in the residential mortgage space.
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Mar 12, 20224 min read


A Tale of Two Mortgage SPACs: UWMC and FOA
Why did FOA write down $1.4 billion in intangible equity, yet UWM took no similar write down?
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Mar 9, 20224 min read


Update: HMPT, RKT, NRZ & UPST
UPST has seen its valuation cut by 60% since March of last year, when its common equity traded at a mere 31x book value.
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Feb 25, 20227 min read


Update: PennyMac Financial and loanDepot
February 7, 2022 | Last week saw the start of the reporting season for publicly listed mortgage companies, with loanDepot (LDI) and...
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Feb 7, 20224 min read


Profile: Citigroup (C)
Why does this bank exist? What market does it serve and how will it grow in the future?
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Jan 27, 20226 min read


Powell, Yellen, Bernanke and Post-QE Deflation
The Powell FOMC has lost all credibility when it comes to financial markets or managing inflation and independence from the US Treasury
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Jan 21, 20225 min read
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