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Taxing Crypto? And Just Where Is That Consumer Recession?
Yes, net loss rates in percentage terms post default are back up to 2010 levels, but the dollar volume of net charge-offs remains very low.
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Jan 58 min read


Update: Top Bank Asset Managers
As and when GS can exit the loss leading credit card relationship with AAPL, the performance of the business should improve significantly.
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Dec 30, 20248 min read


Fed Fiddles as Liquidity Risk Looms
Our bet is that the Bessent "3-3-3" plan likewise will be a failure and that the Fed will be forced to restart QE sooner rather than later
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Nov 26, 20248 min read


Update: Block Inc, Nu Holdings & Guild Holdings
Notice that SQ co-founder Jack Dorsey styles himself as "block head" in the corp roster, a silly affectation that does not help the stock
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Nov 15, 20247 min read


Financials: Post-Trump Victory Notes
The changes that are going to occur in Washington over the next four years will be dramatically different than during Trump I.
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Nov 6, 20245 min read


Housing Finance Outlook; PennyMac, Mr. Cooper & NYCB/Flagstar
NYCB and the unsold rent-stabilized assets left over from the failure of SBNY are two little surprises waiting for the next POTUS.
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Oct 28, 20249 min read


Powell Overshoots the Runway; Update: American Express & Charles Schwab
Last year, when a lot of people were predicting the demise of SCHW, we told our readers to calm down.
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Oct 23, 20247 min read


Will BRICS Topple the Dollar?
Whenever you hear the magic words "blockchain" and "digital tokens," it's a good guess that whatever follows is nonsense.
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Oct 21, 20245 min read


The Bull Case for Large Banks
If you believe that there is no recession coming in 2025, what is the logical response from an informed investment professional?
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Oct 1, 20246 min read


Update: Our Top Five Ideas
How will the sudden shift in Fed policy impact financials? Are we headed for a recession?
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Sep 24, 20246 min read


Recession? Consumer Lenders: AX, AXP, ALLY, Barclays, COF, SOFI, SYF
Axos continues to rebound after the bear raid by Hindenburg Research. AX ranked 18th in the WGA Bank Top Index in Q3 2024 vs 98th for SOFI
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Sep 2, 202412 min read


Universal Banks: Should TD Buy Schwab & Sell Its US Operation?
SCHW needs to take advantage of their strong operating leverage and repair some needless damage done during COVID by inept bank management.
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Aug 25, 20247 min read


New & Old Names in Nonbank Finance
In dollar terms, the moves in 2023 were tiny vs the post March rally in 2020.
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Aug 21, 20247 min read


The Powell Hedge Fund Drives Private Market Instability
In 2019, the FOMC essentially nationalized the US money markets, eliminating private price discovery for a representation of a market.
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Aug 12, 20247 min read


Market Volatility and Loan Defaults
The market tantrum which began on Friday was largely over by the market close on the following Tuesday.
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Aug 8, 20246 min read


Inside the Private Credit Trade
Direct lenders are the pawnbrokers of the 21st Century for subprime commercial borrowers, usually firms financed via leveraged buyouts.
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Jun 4, 20246 min read


WGA Releases Bank Quarterly Q2 2024
The unrealized losses on COVID era securities remain a huge problem for banks large and small, especially if long-term interest rates rise
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Jun 2, 20242 min read


The Bull Case for Large Banks
Big banks have big CRE exposures, too. So what drives this marvelous progression up the wall of worry?
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May 15, 20247 min read


Debt Deflation in CRE? PFSI, COOP & RKT
If the run-of-the-mill Republic First interest rate mark is 13.3% of assets that is not just wiping out one bank’s 8% capital but also FDIC
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May 5, 20249 min read


The Death of Leverage; What's the WAC of Bank America?
The yield on BAC's $320 billion commercial and industrial (C&I) book was just 5.4% or more than 150bp below peer at year-end 2023.
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Apr 24, 20247 min read
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