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GSE Release? Really. What Do JPM and BAC Say About 2025 Earnings?
Without profits from commissions and capital markets, BAC would have reported a down quarter due to higher funding and operating expenses.
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Jan 166 min read


Big Losses in Commercial Real Estate & PE in 2025?
Private equity portfolio companies are about 10 times as likely to go bankrupt as non-PE-owned companies.
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Jan 136 min read


Taxing Crypto? And Just Where Is That Consumer Recession?
Yes, net loss rates in percentage terms post default are back up to 2010 levels, but the dollar volume of net charge-offs remains very low.
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Jan 58 min read


Update: Top Bank Asset Managers
As and when GS can exit the loss leading credit card relationship with AAPL, the performance of the business should improve significantly.
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Dec 30, 20248 min read


Update: Has Jane Fraser Redeemed Citigroup? Nope.
Citi seems to be tracking the group now, whereas pre-COVID the stock significantly underperformed in terms of market beta. But performance?
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Dec 18, 20247 min read


Kamikaze GSE Release? Oh Yeah...
Yes, that's right, we are going to downgrade $8 trillion in GSE MBS and hundreds of billions in corporate debt.
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Dec 10, 202415 min read


WGA Bank Top 10 Index | Time to Short Financials?
When SCHW surpassed U.S. Bancorp in size in 2021, you knew that SCHW’s leadership had gotten lost.
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Dec 9, 20249 min read


Fed Fiddles as Liquidity Risk Looms
Our bet is that the Bessent "3-3-3" plan likewise will be a failure and that the Fed will be forced to restart QE sooner rather than later
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Nov 26, 20248 min read


Trump, Deficits & Credit Default Swaps
As a practical matter, no Fed chairman or governor can function without the support of the White House and the US Treasury.
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Nov 18, 20247 min read


Update: Block Inc, Nu Holdings & Guild Holdings
Notice that SQ co-founder Jack Dorsey styles himself as "block head" in the corp roster, a silly affectation that does not help the stock
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Nov 15, 20247 min read


Q: Is JPMorgan Overinflated?
The banking industry has segmented into a handful of above-average performers and JPM is the largest leader of these "winners"
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Nov 11, 20245 min read


Powell Overshoots the Runway; Update: American Express & Charles Schwab
Last year, when a lot of people were predicting the demise of SCHW, we told our readers to calm down.
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Oct 23, 20247 min read


Update: Citigroup, Bank America and Goldman Sachs
How is Goldman going to extricate itself from this profoundly unattractive business with AAPL without destroying Apple Card?
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Oct 18, 20247 min read


Should TD Bank Rethink US Retail?
WFC is not even out of dodge yet, but TD has cut off the fingers of one hand in yakuza style and is now headed for years of misery
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Oct 16, 20246 min read


GSE Release Under Trump? Post-Rate Cut Margin Calls??
Why should a private Fannie Mae be a 20% risk weight under Basel III, but PFSI or Mr. Cooper (COOP) are 100%?
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Sep 22, 20248 min read


IRA Bank Book Q3 2024 Industry Survey
The Q3 interest rate rally still leaves the industry with a negative
capital position since the average securities yield is only 3%
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Sep 16, 20242 min read


WGA Bank Top 100+ | Large Banks Retreat, Small Banks Rise
The big story nobody is discussing is the fact that large banks led by JPM, BAC and TFC continue to sell off briskly
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Sep 11, 20245 min read


Recession? Consumer Lenders: AX, AXP, ALLY, Barclays, COF, SOFI, SYF
Axos continues to rebound after the bear raid by Hindenburg Research. AX ranked 18th in the WGA Bank Top Index in Q3 2024 vs 98th for SOFI
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Sep 2, 202412 min read


Universal Banks: Should TD Buy Schwab & Sell Its US Operation?
SCHW needs to take advantage of their strong operating leverage and repair some needless damage done during COVID by inept bank management.
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Aug 25, 20247 min read


The Top Seven Banks: JPM, BAC, C, WFC, USB, PNC & TFC
Banks lose money every single day by holding onto a below market security from the 2019-2021 period.
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Aug 18, 20249 min read
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