The Institutional Risk Analyst

SOFI is up almost 300% while the Bitcoin futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange are up less than 100%.  Below we provide some thoughts on the banking group as we head into September. 

When Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. (PNFP) announced an all-stock transaction last week to acquire Synovus Financial Corp. (SNV), we were unimpressed. The markets sold off on the news and there then followed a series of stock downgrades and credit rating agency actions that were disconcerting to put it mildly. 

Whalen Global Advisors LLC (WGA) has published the latest edition of the WGA Top 50 Banks, the fifty top performing large commercial banks in the US. Drawn from the members of Peer Group 1 and other sources, WGA screens the group based upon five proprietary measures of financial and market performance.

Citi has grown corporate loans 10% to $330 million at the end of Q2 2025. In fact, Citi increased its full-year net interest income guidance and raised its revenue forecast to the high end of its previous range. Citi saw assets and NII grow in 2025, but efficiency remained in the low 60s, a tangible indication that Fraser is making progress.

Smaller issuers of stable coins will soon be competing with Verizon (VZN) and JPMorgan (JPM), while platforms offering turnkey coin solutions will multiply like Lantern Flies. 

We all were more than a little amused to learn that in the most recent bank stress tests the Federal Reserve Board decided to ignore the massive financial and reputation risk in private equity and private credit. With cash bids for private assets plummeting, and sponsors in full flight due to prospective litigation by jilted clients, how do the Fed and other bank regulators retain any credibility? Our friend Nom de Plumber had an appropriate observation...

Imagine if the Fed had to tell the public that federal deficits were bad for bank safety and soundness? We haven't had a Fed chairman since Arthur Burns who would speak publicly about the inflationary aspect of federal deficits.

If we told you that large cap financials are outperforming both the S&P 500 and bitcoin over the past month, what would you say? 

The Treasury market/bank industry PR lobbyist angle on the Fed's eSLR proposal is a little fake-out for the financial media. This not about buying more Treasury debt but instead buying back more bank stocks. Sabe?

We have little conviction behind our long positions in AXP and the SPX, thus the defensive recommendation in terms of sell orders.

In simple terms, FLG is not making money and does not seem to have any immediate prospects to pull itself out of a slow downward spiral of balance sheet shrinkage and operating losses.  Whereas before 2024, FLG was a peer performer in most respects, today the bank’s financial performance is significantly below-peer, bottom quartile in many cases.

We noted in the most recent IRA Bank Book that the Q1 2025 banking industry data from the FDIC was showing improvement in certain commercial line items, particularly non-owner occupied real estate. But is this another head fake by desperate banks trying to conceal rancid commercial real estate exposures?

The connection between expanding the balance sheet via open market purchases of Treasury debt and bank reserves is one of the starkest illustrations of how federal budget deficits translate directly into inflation.

As of yesterday's close, BK was right behind SoFi Technology (SOFI) leading the bank surveillance group higher. BK closed yesterday at 14x forward earnings and 1.6x book value, roughly the same PE multiple as JPM but at a lower book value multiple.

“Our operative assumption is that the strong economy and continued high inflation expectations will mitigate against any interest rate cuts in 2025,” Whalen notes. “We expect to see the FOMC end the shrinkage of the central bank’s balance sheet, which should help to increase the very low growth rates for bank deposits.”

While GHLD provides a lot of good information about their business, the investor disclosure provided by UWMC is a bad joke, especially when you remember that UWMC is the largest nonbank lender in the US. The Q1 2025 press release is just 9 pages in length and lacks some of the most basic financial information available from UWMC’s peers.

TD was up about 6% over the past three months, the only name in our test group with a positive three-month market return, of note.

The overall loss rate for the SOFI credit book is very low and the overall net loss rate reported in the Form Y-9 is also low, as shown in the chart above. But the levels of net loss on the bank's unsecured consumer loan book are eye-opening. As and when credit costs actually start to rise among US banks, the unsecured consumer book of SOFI may become a larger concern.

When President Donald Trump says the Fed should cut interest rates, he is probably right – at least speaking from the perspective of the real estate markets.

President Trump will not try to fire Chairman Powell. Why not? First, because Powell cannot be removed save for malfeasance. Second, because firing Powell would seriously piss off Senate Republicans, killing Trump's hopes for tax legislation this year.