The Institutional Risk Analyst

The Federal Open Market Committee has arguably lost control of monetary policy and has placed America's banks in grave risk.

CEO Patrick Collison is guiding investors and the media to a $200 million profit in 2023. Selective disclosure??

Our view is that the BKI purchase is a horrible deal for ICE shareholders, a value killer of epic proportions

The risk-adjusted return on capital for BK is negative and probably lower than Goldman, the highest risk large US bank

Ally is still more finance company than bank and really has no core deposit base worthy of the name.

We hear in the channel that regulators are making their views of future loss probabilities very clear in guidance to the top banks

The Fed’s de facto embrace of inflation encourages misallocation of economic resources on a grand scale....

But nothing lasts forever in mortgage land or in financials. Stay tuned and pay attention to LT rates and spreads...

The largest banks continue to serve as a haven for refugees from crypto fraud schemes and the fintech swoon, but are not cheap

The US government now owns the largest reverse lender in the country.

Like most nonbanks (and Goldman Sachs is predominantly a nonbank), volumes are falling and funding costs are rising.

Many in the Buy Side chorus are looking forward to lower interest rates, but we are concerned that next year could really be about solvency

Rapidly rising interest rates in Q3 2022 pushed down the tangible capital for the US banking industry to negative $1.9 trillion

The US banking industry has been rendered insolvent by the Federal Open Market Committee

Despite all the hyperbole, the great crypto fraud was a small game, like the party poker that many crypto enthusiasts share in common

It seems obvious that the reported book value metrics coming from many commercial banks, REITs and mortgage banks are a tad inflated...

Crypto has gone from a sort-of juiced up equity strategy to a distressed credit story in just hours.

Every residential mortgage loan made in 2020-2021 is likely to be underwater by the end of 2023

The big news this week starts with the poor showing by Rocket Companies (RKT), reporting a loss for Q3 2022 and a big decline in volumes.

Like COOP, volumes are down dramatically from 2021 but MSR values and cash flows from servicing are rising