The Institutional Risk Analyst

We have published the latest edition of The IRA Bank Book for Q4 2025. Entitled "Defaults Fall, Market Risk Grows," the report details how indicators of consumer credit risk are falling even as risk to financial markets from institutional and commercial credit, crypto tokens and market exposures grow. Bank income has reached record levels in Q3 2025, but what happens in Q4 2025 and 2026?

TD was up about 6% over the past three months, the only name in our test group with a positive three-month market return, of note.

WFC is not even out of dodge yet, but TD has cut off the fingers of one hand in yakuza style and is now headed for years of misery

The largest banks continue to serve as a haven for refugees from crypto fraud schemes and the fintech swoon, but are not cheap

In times of market volatility and suddenly ended delusions of easy money, the prudent path is to fly to quality.