The Institutional Risk Analyst

Brent was down to about $94/barrel ($103 last week). Gasoline prices also fell to $4.39 vs $4.52 last week, with diesel down to $5.52 vs $5.63 last week. But technology stocks are at all-time highs led by the likes of Micron Technology, Inc. (MU), which is up over 800% in the past year. Are the US equity markets approaching an inevitable reset?

Of course, in the muddled markets at present, there are a number of low-scoring banks which have done relatively well in recent weeks. The parent company of tiny Merchants Bank of Indiana, Merchants Bancorp (MBIN), for example, saw its stock price rise significantly in early 2026, 2x the S&P 500 over the past year, driven primarily by its inclusion in a major index and strong financial performance.

We have published the latest edition of The IRA Bank Book for Q4 2025. Entitled "Defaults Fall, Market Risk Grows," the report details how indicators of consumer credit risk are falling even as risk to financial markets from institutional and commercial credit, crypto tokens and market exposures grow. Bank income has reached record levels in Q3 2025, but what happens in Q4 2025 and 2026?

TD was up about 6% over the past three months, the only name in our test group with a positive three-month market return, of note.

WFC is not even out of dodge yet, but TD has cut off the fingers of one hand in yakuza style and is now headed for years of misery

The largest banks continue to serve as a haven for refugees from crypto fraud schemes and the fintech swoon, but are not cheap

In times of market volatility and suddenly ended delusions of easy money, the prudent path is to fly to quality.