The Institutional Risk Analyst

In fact, we expect the war with Iran to result in higher interest rates, higher inflation and rationing of key petroleum byproducts in coming months, something that nobody in the Trump Administration seems willing to discuss. If Washington was populated by serious people, the federal government would already be making plans for rationing key refined products.

Meanwhile, Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of Strategy (MSTR), f/k/a MicroStrategy, stated that the company will "probably sell some Bitcoin" to fund dividends and "inoculate the market," after the firm (now holding hundreds of thousands of coins) faced consecutive quarterly losses. This change marks a stark reversal in Saylor’s public position regarding the value of bitcoin.

We hear that the PennyMac fiasco was largely caused by Bill Pulte and the Trump Administration. Most people in the markets don't realize that the GSEs had already bought a ton of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in Q4 of last year. This market manipulation tightened mortgage spreads 15-20bps and increased mortgage prepayment speeds without a corresponding offset from hedges in the Treasury market. This set up PennyMac and other mortgage lenders for a disaster.