The Institutional Risk Analyst

Citi has grown corporate loans 10% to $330 million at the end of Q2 2025. In fact, Citi increased its full-year net interest income guidance and raised its revenue forecast to the high end of its previous range. Citi saw assets and NII grow in 2025, but efficiency remained in the low 60s, a tangible indication that Fraser is making progress.

We noted in the most recent IRA Bank Book that the Q1 2025 banking industry data from the FDIC was showing improvement in certain commercial line items, particularly non-owner occupied real estate. But is this another head fake by desperate banks trying to conceal rancid commercial real estate exposures?

If we consider the larger picture, we already have years of pent-up credit expenses awaiting realization, but add to the sauce Donald Trump.

Citi seems to be tracking the group now, whereas pre-COVID the stock significantly underperformed in terms of market beta. But performance?

In dollar terms, the moves in 2023 were tiny vs the post March rally in 2020.

Banks lose money every single day by holding onto a below market security from the 2019-2021 period.

Citigroup leads the pack with a net loss rate of 133 basis points (bp) that is almost five times the average for Peer Group 1 at 27 bp.

BK and Vanguard are above the 4.9% legal limit on ownership of voting shares of a bank. This fact gives the FDIC et al the power...

What does PNC tell us now about commercial loan exposures in 2024?

The Q2 2023 disclosure for PACW suggests an institution that is bleeding cash and operating in extremis...

If the FOMC raises the target rate for fed funds further, then banks like CMA are likely to come under renewed selling pressure.

Most major banks grew larger during quantitative easing. Now many of these banks will shrink in terms of assets and also earnings in Q1 2023

The Fed’s de facto embrace of inflation encourages misallocation of economic resources on a grand scale....

The largest banks continue to serve as a haven for refugees from crypto fraud schemes and the fintech swoon, but are not cheap

Many of the better managed financials that we track have become sellers of assets rather than buyers in the past several months.

Which US financial will best weather the coming equity market correction?

U.S. Bancorp, PNC and Truist Financial hold great value creation potential. But which is likely to realize this potential?

We think that a strong case can be made that to enhance shareholder value, Moynihan and the BAC board ought to spin-off Merrill Lynch...

By acquiring the $100 billion asset BBVA USA, PNC is doing the Federal Reserve Board and other regulators a favor.