The Institutional Risk Analyst

We expect the shares of the GSEs to lose ground this week given last week’s bizarre announcement by Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte that the GSEs will not be released from conservatorship after all. After pumping the two stocks for months with the prospect of release from conservatorship, Pulte said Friday that the GSEs would stay under federal control for now, reinforcing their conservatorship status while exploring a limited public offering option.

As and when the home price correction finally arrives ~ 2028, many of the conventional loans written since 2020 are likely to be underwater vs the collateral.  The GSEs will be looking for reasons to reject loans. After all, FHFA Director Bill Pulte is in the loan insurance business.

Suffice to say that while the economy may be showing signs of growing stress, the bid for risk assets and particularly income-producing assets remains quite brisk. There are literally dozens of nonbank issuers accessing the debt markets well-below double digit yields.

Why is Secretary Bessent talking publicly about Powell or the Fed at all? How does this squawking enhance the credibility of the Trump Administration or the U.S. Treasury?

Notice that SQ co-founder Jack Dorsey styles himself as "block head" in the corp roster, a silly affectation that does not help the stock

The survivors in mortgage finance optimize operations around purchasing loans from brokers/ correspondents, and direct to consumer (DTC)

The key term for risk managers and investors in 2024 remains unchanged from this year: Volatility.

Every residential mortgage loan made in 2020-2021 is likely to be underwater by the end of 2023

If the merger of Black Knight and Intercontinental Exchange goes through, the expanded ICE monopoly will simply give POS tools away for free

Interest rates are starting to be very positive, and bank deposit rates are barely moving, so pretense of fintech as bank killer is over

February 7, 2022 | Last week saw the start of the reporting season for publicly listed mortgage companies, with loanDepot (LDI) and...

Growing numbers of investors are burned by mortgage stocks. Big question: Will the industry snap back due to now falling interest rates?

The big surge in income and net worth caused by the FOMC last year is rapidly ending. Winter has returned to mortgage land...

We continue to believe that issuers and funds should be accumulating conventional servicing. Rates bottomed in February...