The Institutional Risk Analyst

As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee took no action on interest rates in a 10-2 vote. Warsh gave a rambling statement at the Fed’s October 28 press conference and announced that the FOMC would hold fewer policy related meetings in 2027 and 2028. Warsh is apparently making the same mistake as Paul Volker in 1980, delaying actions to fight inflation to serve the political needs of the White House.

The UWMC stock bounced on Friday to $1.40 vs $1 a week before, but can the markets move to the key threshold of $2 given the limited disclosure and some inconsistencies that we discuss below? The contrarian in us thinks that there may be more upside in UWMC that many realize, as we discuss below, but remember that this is a non-bank mortgage issuer that is in the process of making significant operational changes.

Some observers think that United Wholesale Mortgage Corp (UWMC) collapsed into the arms of Oaktree Capital Management because they erroneously hedged Two Harbors, a company they ultimately did not buy. But this is wrong. UWMC collapsed because the CEO, Mat Ishbia, extracted hundreds of millions of dollars in cash from a company that was never really profitable. UWMC was run for volume, not profits. Indeed, his aggressive strategy compressed profits across the entire mortgage

Q: Do you suppose the folks inside the Trump White House, who spend much of the day watching Newsmax, understand that loan forbearance is about to end for tens of thousands of American households on October 1st?