The Institutional Risk Analyst

When we consider the track of interest rates during the term of President Donald Trump, it is hard to make the case that the Powell FOMC was not giving the White House everything they wanted and more. Now, however, the US central bank seems to be headed for a policy stance that is closer to neutral than accommodative.

One reason that we believe that consumer loss rates are so low is that more aggressive lenders like HAPN and many others are ready and willing to provide unsecured financing to consumers. Given the signs of stress we see building in the private residential loan channel, we'd be more inclined to take the short side of HAPN -- especially if they are so anxious to take risk in home improvement lending.

The average of non-interest income to assets for the more than 100 large banks in Peer Group One is 1% of assets. AXP’s non-interest income was equal to 18% of total assets at the end of 2025, putting the $290 billion asset bank in the 99th percentile of all US banks based on this measure. Add this to astute management and high asset turns and AXP is the premier bank in the US based upon market valuation.