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What Does a Smaller Fed Balance Sheet Mean for Inflation & Interest Rates?
We all need to remember that shrinking the Treasury portion of the Fed balance sheet is the easy part. The $2 trillion in notional amount of MBS held in SOMA, which now has an effective duration that is much, much bigger than the rest of the portfolio combined, requires some subtlety. The good news is that the agencies and Ginnie Mae are thinking about a potential Fed MBS swap with Treasury. Wall Street can make it all happen and profit handsomely by selling a lot of “AAA” ra
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May 177 min read


Risk Concealed: Private Credit, PIK and the Banks
If you figure that the seven year portion of the Treasury curve is around 4% today, a nearly 7% yield on EverBank's NDFI loan book seems pretty risky. But in fact the average yield on this loan category was over 10% for all 100 plus banks in Peer Group 1. So while EverBank certainly has a concentration in NDFI lending, it is not the highest yield. JPMorgan (JPM) was 5.9% in Q3, putting the House of Morgan in the 80th percentile of Peer Group 1.
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Mar 159 min read


Banks Slide as Asset Sales Accelerate
If we told you that the Trump White House was planning to end the issuance of all agency MBS, how do you think this will impact financials?
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Mar 11, 20255 min read


Big Losses in Commercial Real Estate & PE in 2025?
Private equity portfolio companies are about 10 times as likely to go bankrupt as non-PE-owned companies.
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Jan 13, 20256 min read


Small Banks Have Big CRE Risk? Really? | Bank of America Update
The net losses disclosed by BAC and the other large banks at the end of Q4 2023 are significantly understated...
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Mar 25, 20247 min read


What Does PNC Financial Say About Commercial Real Estate?
What does PNC tell us now about commercial loan exposures in 2024?
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Dec 12, 20236 min read
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