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The Institutional Risk Analyst


How Will Consumer Lenders Fare in a Serious Recession?
Many voices in the media and elsewhere have been predicting an economic slump since 2023. Didn’t happen, but 2025 is very different.
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Mar 2811 min read


Silicon Valley and the Large Bank Dead Pool
When you see a bank with more than 10% of total assets in MBS, that's a big red flag in our book.
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Mar 97 min read


Taxing Crypto? And Just Where Is That Consumer Recession?
Yes, net loss rates in percentage terms post default are back up to 2010 levels, but the dollar volume of net charge-offs remains very low.
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Jan 58 min read


Financials: Post-Trump Victory Notes
The changes that are going to occur in Washington over the next four years will be dramatically different than during Trump I.
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Nov 6, 20245 min read


Recession? Consumer Lenders: AX, AXP, ALLY, Barclays, COF, SOFI, SYF
Axos continues to rebound after the bear raid by Hindenburg Research. AX ranked 18th in the WGA Bank Top Index in Q3 2024 vs 98th for SOFI
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Sep 2, 202412 min read


Bank Earnings: JPM, BAC, AX, GS & SCHW
GS saw loss provisions fall slightly in Q2 2024 to $282 million but the number was still $600 million in the first half of the year...
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Jul 17, 20245 min read


Earnings Setup: Consumer Lenders | ALLY AXP AX BCS COF SOFI SYF
The first comment to make is that consumer defaults are rising across the board. The only question we need to consider is the rate of change
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Jul 11, 20245 min read


Faux Bear Raids on OZK and AX? But More Trouble Ahead for CRE Equity
We remind readers that unrealized losses on securities are still a bigger problem for banks than CRE.
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Jun 7, 20247 min read


Inside the WGA Bank Top 10 Index
So what makes the WGA Bank Top 10 unique? Below we provide some quantitative and qualitative comments on each of the ten best US banks
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Mar 13, 20247 min read
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