The Institutional Risk Analyst

Given the demand for safe assets, the true risk free rate today is probably less than zero. Ponder that Chairman Powell

Net, net, the dynamics in the market are actually forcing interest rates down

Benevolence, as Chris and I noted in our book "Financial Stability," always gets you more bang for the buck than being miserable.

Even as Powell signals willingness to take interest rate targets higher, he has put off a decision on the Fed's balance sheet until June.

Take the financials and add some unicorn dust in terms of innovation to the mix and perhaps a double-digit PE ratio for PYPL makes sense.

No amount of computer power can really, really enable you to predict when Fred and Wilma are going to sell or refinance their home.

Xi Jinping in China and Putin in Russia have turned their backs on the global economy to retain power

Will Fed Chairman Jay Powell fold in terms of further rate hikes if the S&P 500 falls 1,000 points in a day?

Many of the startups, investment flows and SPAC transactions that proliferated in 2020-2021 are likely to be casualties in the next several

With MBS prices falling, the FOMC may have to accept the natural runoff rate for the MBS in the SOMA for many years to come

Valuations for the top five US banks are up slightly as Q1 2022 comes to an end

If the Fed causes another liquidity crisis as it ends QE and shrinks the balance sheet, then Chairman Powell should immediately resign.

There a brisk debate ongoing in the fixed income markets over how much the Federal Open Market Committee will raise interest rates and when

Why did FOA write down $1.4 billion in intangible equity, yet UWM took no similar write down?

If you consider QE “stimulus” inflationary, then Fed policy actually accelerated inflation in the November-January period.

Spreads have a long way to go before we return to the crisis levels of Q1 2020. And we are not nearly ready to go shopping.

The Powell FOMC has lost all credibility when it comes to financial markets or managing inflation and independence from the US Treasury

We think the chart below from FRED is worth any amount of words on the impact of QE on equity market valuations.

any of the problems that the Fed now seeks to fix, starting with the unnecessary elimination of LIBOR, are a function of earlier policies...

And in the meantime, we view the end of QE as a net negative for global stocks as well as crypto. Everything is correlated in a crowd.