The Institutional Risk Analyst

Banks lose money every single day by holding onto a below market security from the 2019-2021 period.

In 2019, the FOMC essentially nationalized the US money markets, eliminating private price discovery for a representation of a market.

GS saw loss provisions fall slightly in Q2 2024 to $282 million but the number was still $600 million in the first half of the year...

The Basel Accord is one of the single biggest examples of a regulatory agency literally creating a new law from whole cloth.

Notice that the Fed stress test is silent on trillions of dollars in mark-to-market losses facing US banks from COVID-era securities

Ginnie Mae would rather have issuers raise the NPV of the MSR in cash today than take the price risk of holding the whole MSR through time.

Citigroup leads the pack with a net loss rate of 133 basis points (bp) that is almost five times the average for Peer Group 1 at 27 bp.

In the 1950s through maybe into the late 1990s, the FOMC could control mortgage interest rates....

Powell won’t hit the two percent target, but he won’t change the target either.

Obviously, there should be no interest rate cuts by the FOMC without deficit reduction by Congress.

We think it is reasonable to push expectations of a cut in the target for Fed funds into Q1 2025. 

The fixation with the idea of resolving large zombie banks without public expense is evidence of our collective delusion. 

Only in the strange confines of Washington do you still find people who think that the federal budget deficit is not a problem.

Based upon the three-month returns through the end of Q1 2024, NYCB ranked at the bottom of the 108 public banks in Peer Group 1.

Perhaps Chairman Powell will be kind enough to fall on his sword on way out the door to make things easier for a future Chairman Waller...

We see higher credit costs, narrowing NIM and still rising funding costs squeezing the banking industry in Q1 2024...

More often than not, Fed Governors use media appearances to enhance their personal celebrity rather than doing their jobs.

Industry leaders believe that the FHFA wants the GSEs to offer issuers "repurchase insurance" to the tune of 25bps per loan.

While there are a great number of people inside the Fed who ponder the appropriate level of reserves in the system, they don't really know

Volatility remains perhaps the biggest risk factor today, mostly because of a lack of visibility on unexpected risks.