The Institutional Risk Analyst

Whether we have Donald Trump or Joe Biden in the White House next Christmas, the US seems to be on a trajectory to a financial crisis...

The last Treasury Secretary that tried to extend the maturities of US government debt was Jack Lew (2013-2017). Yellen missed an opportunity

We look for lower prices for legacy MBS and MSRs as new allocations are used up and P&Ls sink deeper into the red...

Remember, for every $1 in debt redeemed on the books of the Fed, a bank deposit disappears.

What can SYF tell us about the bleeding edge of unsecured consumer credit?

The price volatility injected into markets by the Fed is a primary reason why the FDIC cannot easily find buyers for smaller banks.

Banks that do not aggressively reprice liabilities and assets as OZK did in Q1 2023 may be left behind.

The funding crisis affecting US banks is not over and very definitely not limited to smaller banks.

We liked the NYCB + Flagstar story prior to the transaction with the FDIC for the assets and deposits of Signature Bank.

Last week not a single member of the Big Media managed to ask Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about the state of the US banking system

CEO Patrick Collison is guiding investors and the media to a $200 million profit in 2023. Selective disclosure??

Ally is still more finance company than bank and really has no core deposit base worthy of the name.

The Fed’s de facto embrace of inflation encourages misallocation of economic resources on a grand scale....

In other words, those residual claims on crypto issuers that have been trading at pennies on the dollar may have no value whatsoever.

Like most nonbanks (and Goldman Sachs is predominantly a nonbank), volumes are falling and funding costs are rising.

Since 2008, dollar swap spreads have traded below Treasury yields, suggesting a persistent demand for dollars coming from offshore.

Rapidly rising interest rates in Q3 2022 pushed down the tangible capital for the US banking industry to negative $1.9 trillion

Bankruptcy of Reverse Mortgage Funding may be first step in a systemic crisis affecting the government loan market

The US banking industry has been rendered insolvent by the Federal Open Market Committee

Despite all the hyperbole, the great crypto fraud was a small game, like the party poker that many crypto enthusiasts share in common