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Commercial Real Estate & Bank OZK
Banks that do not aggressively reprice liabilities and assets as OZK did in Q1 2023 may be left behind.
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Apr 24, 20236 min read


The Bank Deposit Run Is Not Over
The funding crisis affecting US banks is not over and very definitely not limited to smaller banks.
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Apr 19, 20237 min read


Q1 2023 Bank Earnings: Lower for Longer | JPM USB C WFC BAC
Given that the US Treasury is paying 4% for 90-day T-bills, you can see how far banks have to go to become competitive on rates
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Apr 12, 20238 min read


Powell's Duration Trap, Banks and the US Treasury
The Fed by definition cannot make a profit and is always an expense to the Treasury, thus operating losses are a expense to the taxpayer
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Apr 9, 202312 min read


Update: Charles Schwab (SCHW); Sagent Presentation
Most major banks grew larger during quantitative easing. Now many of these banks will shrink in terms of assets and also earnings in Q1 2023
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Apr 3, 20236 min read


QT, Interest Rates & Bank Solvency
At the Fed, because “confidence” is considered a factor in “policy,” it is OK to fib and obfuscate about the true cost of monetary policy.
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Mar 30, 20236 min read


Update: New York Community Bank
We liked the NYCB + Flagstar story prior to the transaction with the FDIC for the assets and deposits of Signature Bank.
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Mar 26, 202310 min read


FOMC Doubles Down on Market Risk
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell are another bank failure or two away from returning to the private sector.
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Mar 23, 20236 min read


Winners & Losers in the New Gilded Age
Mark Twain called Washington ''the grand old benevolent National Asylum for the Helpless'' in his classic "The Gilded Age."
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Mar 21, 20235 min read


Mark-to-Market on Bank America; Update on Credit Suisse & Guild Holdings
We recently added Western Alliance (WAL) and GHLD to our portfolio
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Mar 17, 20238 min read


QE & the Yellen Banking Crisis
By any reasonable standard, Janet Yellen should have already resigned, but not in the strange world of Washington.
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Mar 14, 20238 min read


Who Killed Silicon Valley Bank?; The IRA Bank Book Q1 2023
Last week not a single member of the Big Media managed to ask Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about the state of the US banking system
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Mar 11, 20236 min read


RKT Sinks, UWMC Wobbles, RITM Treads Water & Goldman Doubles Down
GS is a securities dealer first and foremost and has no comparative advantage as a bank.
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Mar 2, 20236 min read


QT & Powell's Liquidity Trap
The Federal Open Market Committee has arguably lost control of monetary policy and has placed America's banks in grave risk.
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Feb 27, 20236 min read


Is Stripe Worth $55 Billion? Really?
CEO Patrick Collison is guiding investors and the media to a $200 million profit in 2023. Selective disclosure??
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Feb 21, 20236 min read


Ginnie Mae - Credit Suisse = ? A Biden MSR Tax? Does BKI + ICE = < 2?
Our view is that the BKI purchase is a horrible deal for ICE shareholders, a value killer of epic proportions
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Feb 13, 20238 min read


Goldman Sachs + Bank of New York Mellon = ?
The risk-adjusted return on capital for BK is negative and probably lower than Goldman, the highest risk large US bank
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Feb 6, 20237 min read


Why the FT is Wrong About Ally Financial
Ally is still more finance company than bank and really has no core deposit base worthy of the name.
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Jan 30, 20237 min read


Update: Bank of America
We hear in the channel that regulators are making their views of future loss probabilities very clear in guidance to the top banks
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Jan 23, 20236 min read


Goldman Drops Restatement; Jamie Dimon Drops the Ball on "Frank"
The Fed’s de facto embrace of inflation encourages misallocation of economic resources on a grand scale....
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Jan 16, 20237 min read
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