The Institutional Risk Analyst

The banks have left the government market. Now Ginnie Mae seems bound and determined to drive the IMBs out of government lending as well

Interest rates are starting to be very positive, and bank deposit rates are barely moving, so pretense of fintech as bank killer is over

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will likely sit in conservatorship indefinitely unless and until Congress acts first.

Total noncore funding at GS was over $700 billion at the end of Q1 2022 vs $321 billion for MS.

The deflation of 2023 is about marking down all types of real assets to the price level that equates with a non-QE world.

The good news for BAC and other banks is that there is a discernable lift underway on the yield of bank balance sheets

In times of market volatility and suddenly ended delusions of easy money, the prudent path is to fly to quality.

Most of the banks in our surveillance group are down between 10% and 30% so far this year, but none of these are particularly cheap as yet

A "normal" level for US bank deposits would be closer to $15 trillion than $19.9 trillion today.

Even as the FOMC raises interest rates, we caution our readers to be prepared for disappointment from banks near term

We see an at least equal chance that margins will get squeezed for agency and MSR investors before they expand via higher interest rates

Market risk realized today becomes credit risk tomorrow...

The sharp rise in bank stocks in 2021 coincided with a surge in operating income due to COVID. Now we reverse that trend in 2022...

The reduction in the Fed's balance sheet is the largest ever margin call on equity exposures of all descriptions.

Even as Powell signals willingness to take interest rate targets higher, he has put off a decision on the Fed's balance sheet until June.

Just imagine how global markets will react when Putin deploys tactical nuclear weapons in Eastern Ukraine to avoid a military defeat

Simply stated, Morgan Stanley has a much more diverse and sustainable business model than Goldman Sachs...

Will Fed Chairman Jay Powell fold in terms of further rate hikes if the S&P 500 falls 1,000 points in a day?

Many of the startups, investment flows and SPAC transactions that proliferated in 2020-2021 are likely to be casualties in the next several

Valuations for the top five US banks are up slightly as Q1 2022 comes to an end