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R. Christopher Whalen

Jul 3, 20237 min read

Top Five Banks: JPMorgan Leads the Pack

JPM is really a large mutual fund with a bank attached, as shown in the table below.

822 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 28, 20237 min read

Profile: Comerica Inc.

If the FOMC raises the target rate for fed funds further, then banks like CMA are likely to come under renewed selling pressure.

1,462 views

Update: Mortgage Lenders, TBA Contango & MSRs

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 26, 20238 min read

Update: Mortgage Lenders, TBA Contango & MSRs

We look for lower prices for legacy MBS and MSRs as new allocations are used up and P&Ls sink deeper into the red...

1,104 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Jun 1, 20234 min read

First Take on FDIC Bank Data

If we assume that asset returns will continue to rise, but that bank funding costs will rise 5x asset returns, then US banks have a problem

1,057 views

R. Christopher Whalen

May 23, 20237 min read

PacWest Bancorp & Fed Hawks

To survive long-term, both WAL and PACW need to get that beta back down below 2 and closer to 1, but the hawks on the FOMC may not cooperate

2,432 views

Is USA still a "AAA" Credit? Really? Update: Rithm Capital

R. Christopher Whalen

May 10, 20238 min read

Is USA still a "AAA" Credit? Really? Update: Rithm Capital

When interest rates eventually fall those late vintage mortgage loans with 6% coupons will evaporate like spring snow in the sunshine

1,505 views

The False Narrative on First Republic Bank

R. Christopher Whalen

May 1, 20236 min read

The False Narrative on First Republic Bank

Until Chairman Powell comes clean with the Congress and the American people, more banks will inevitably fail.

5,205 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 26, 20236 min read

Who Killed First Republic Bank?

The Treasury and Fed cannot admit fault for fear of bringing the whole house of cards crashing down.

3,340 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 19, 20237 min read

The Bank Deposit Run Is Not Over

The funding crisis affecting US banks is not over and very definitely not limited to smaller banks.

4,569 views

Funding & Credit: Q1 2023 Bank Earnings Takeaways

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 17, 20234 min read

Funding & Credit: Q1 2023 Bank Earnings Takeaways

The issue is not whether your bank is getting smaller, but whether credit expenses are being managed as funding costs inevitably rise.

1,129 views

Q1 2023 Bank Earnings: Lower for Longer | JPM USB C WFC BAC

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 12, 20238 min read

Q1 2023 Bank Earnings: Lower for Longer | JPM USB C WFC BAC

Given that the US Treasury is paying 4% for 90-day T-bills, you can see how far banks have to go to become competitive on rates

1,032 views

Powell's Duration Trap, Banks and the US Treasury

R. Christopher Whalen

Apr 9, 202312 min read

Powell's Duration Trap, Banks and the US Treasury

The Fed by definition cannot make a profit and is always an expense to the Treasury, thus operating losses are a expense to the taxpayer

4,220 views

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 26, 202310 min read

Update: New York Community Bank

We liked the NYCB + Flagstar story prior to the transaction with the FDIC for the assets and deposits of Signature Bank.

1,155 views

Mark-to-Market on Bank America; Update on Credit Suisse & Guild Holdings

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 17, 20238 min read

Mark-to-Market on Bank America; Update on Credit Suisse & Guild Holdings

We recently added Western Alliance (WAL) and GHLD to our portfolio

2,718 views

Who Killed Silicon Valley Bank?; The IRA Bank Book Q1 2023

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 11, 20236 min read

Who Killed Silicon Valley Bank?; The IRA Bank Book Q1 2023

Last week not a single member of the Big Media managed to ask Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about the state of the US banking system

8,991 views

RKT Sinks, UWMC Wobbles, RITM Treads Water & Goldman Doubles Down

R. Christopher Whalen

Mar 2, 20236 min read

RKT Sinks, UWMC Wobbles, RITM Treads Water & Goldman Doubles Down

GS is a securities dealer first and foremost and has no comparative advantage as a bank.

899 views

Ginnie Mae - Credit Suisse = ? A Biden MSR Tax? Does BKI + ICE = < 2?

R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 13, 20238 min read

Ginnie Mae - Credit Suisse = ? A Biden MSR Tax? Does BKI + ICE = < 2?

Our view is that the BKI purchase is a horrible deal for ICE shareholders, a value killer of epic proportions

1,047 views

Goldman Sachs + Bank of New York Mellon = ?

R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 6, 20237 min read

Goldman Sachs + Bank of New York Mellon = ?

The risk-adjusted return on capital for BK is negative and probably lower than Goldman, the highest risk large US bank

1,215 views

Two Inflation Narratives; Credit Suisse & Ginnie Mae MSRs

R. Christopher Whalen

Feb 3, 20239 min read

Two Inflation Narratives; Credit Suisse & Ginnie Mae MSRs

The big take away from Q4 2022 earnings is that credit expenses are headed higher and at a brisk pace

842 views

Why the FT is Wrong About Ally Financial

R. Christopher Whalen

Jan 30, 20237 min read

Why the FT is Wrong About Ally Financial

Ally is still more finance company than bank and really has no core deposit base worthy of the name.

992 views