The Bear Case for Ginnie Mae Issuers
The nightmare scenario in the government loan market is that FHA loan delinquency rises to the point where issuers become insolvent
The Institutional Risk Analyst
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R. Christopher Whalen
- Sep 14
- 2 min
IRA Bank Book Q3 2022
We expect to see reasonably strong earnings for commercial lenders in Q3 2022 as loan yields slowly rise...
240 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Sep 8
- 5 min
Update: The Bull Case for US Financials
Investors who were buying large caps at 2x book value a year ago are now running away from bank stocks just as fundamentals improve...
422 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Aug 24
- 6 min
Interview: Scott Olson of Community Home Lenders of America
The banks have left the government market. Now Ginnie Mae seems bound and determined to drive the IMBs out of government lending as well
607 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Aug 21
- 7 min
Interest Rates, FinTechs & MSRs
Interest rates are starting to be very positive, and bank deposit rates are barely moving, so pretense of fintech as bank killer is over
468 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Aug 17
- 6 min
No End to Conservatorship for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will likely sit in conservatorship indefinitely unless and until Congress acts first.
471 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Aug 15
- 9 min
Universal Banks | Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, Raymond James & Stifel
Total noncore funding at GS was over $700 billion at the end of Q1 2022 vs $321 billion for MS.
348 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Aug 10
- 5 min
The FOMC Embraces Debt Deflation
The deflation of 2023 is about marking down all types of real assets to the price level that equates with a non-QE world.
644 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 19
- 6 min
Interest Rates & Bank Earnings
The good news for BAC and other banks is that there is a discernable lift underway on the yield of bank balance sheets
338 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 7
- 5 min
Top Five US Banks by Market Performance
In times of market volatility and suddenly ended delusions of easy money, the prudent path is to fly to quality.
414 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 29
- 8 min
Bank Earnings Setup: JPM, USB, WFC, BAC & Citi
Most of the banks in our surveillance group are down between 10% and 30% so far this year, but none of these are particularly cheap as yet
408 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 27
- 3 min
Bank Liquidity & Quantitative Tightening (QT)
A "normal" level for US bank deposits would be closer to $15 trillion than $19.9 trillion today.
840 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 15
- 5 min
Update: US Banks Post-QE
Even as the FOMC raises interest rates, we caution our readers to be prepared for disappointment from banks near term
388 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 9
- 8 min
Interest Rates and Residential Mortgage REITs
We see an at least equal chance that margins will get squeezed for agency and MSR investors before they expand via higher interest rates
570 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 31
- 6 min
QT Means Short Credit Risk
Market risk realized today becomes credit risk tomorrow...
1,203 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 29
- 2 min
The IRA Bank Book | Outlook Q2 2022
The sharp rise in bank stocks in 2021 coincided with a surge in operating income due to COVID. Now we reverse that trend in 2022...
393 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 23
- 7 min
Equity Market Valuations & Quantitative Tightening
The reduction in the Fed's balance sheet is the largest ever margin call on equity exposures of all descriptions.
957 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 4
- 5 min
Interest Rates, Credit and MSRs
Even as Powell signals willingness to take interest rate targets higher, he has put off a decision on the Fed's balance sheet until June.
469 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 20
- 5 min
Ukraine & the Return of Credit Risk
Just imagine how global markets will react when Putin deploys tactical nuclear weapons in Eastern Ukraine to avoid a military defeat
527 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 17
- 6 min
Profile: Morgan Stanley vs Goldman Sachs
Simply stated, Morgan Stanley has a much more diverse and sustainable business model than Goldman Sachs...
382 views