The IRA Bank Book | Q3 2021
In the Q3 2021 edition of The IRA Bank Book, we document the slow destruction of US bank asset and equity returns by the FOMC.
The Institutional Risk Analyst
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R. Christopher Whalen
- Sep 9
- 6 min
The IRA Top Ten Financials
Which US financial will best weather the coming equity market correction?
286 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Aug 27
- 9 min
Profile: PNC v U.S. Bancorp v Truist Financial
U.S. Bancorp, PNC and Truist Financial hold great value creation potential. But which is likely to realize this potential?
222 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Aug 23
- 7 min
Interview: Lee Smith, Flagstar Bank
We expect to see a lot more M&A activity over the next 12 – 18 months, as that’s the only way for some players to grow share.
607 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Aug 3
- 5 min
G-30 Liquidity Panic: Standing REPOs and Centralized Clearing
Many of the changes to the US Treasury and REPO markets that were predicted in our comment this past May are coming to fruition.
697 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 23
- 5 min
Profile: Bank of America (BAC)
BAC is the worst performing bank in the top-five US commercial banks and often underperforms the average for Peer Group 1.
239 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jul 12
- 3 min
Q2 2021 Bank Earnings Setup | GS, JPM, FRC | NIM Lower for Longer
Cheap liquidity c/o the FOMC does little for bank earnings when asset returns are also falling
479 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 17
- 9 min
Upstart Holdings: Victory for AI? Or Not...
While the progress in machine learning is impressive, horsepower in terms of computational capacity does not translate into intelligence.
452 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jun 3
- 10 min
The IRA Bank Book Q2 2021: Lower Earnings Ahead
If you back reserve releases out of Q1 2021 bank results, revenues and earnings were down and trend is headed lower due to QE
340 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 22
- 6 min
Citigroup: Breaking Up is Hard to Do
Citi has drifted through years of government ownership and weak leadership by the board of directors
312 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 12
- 6 min
Forbearance, Shrinking NIM & Prepayments Menace US Financials
Simply stated, US banks are twice as expensive as they were a year ago looking at earnings and assets....
806 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 5
- 13 min
Update: Commercial, Residential Loans & MSRs
We continue to believe that issuers and funds should be accumulating conventional servicing. Rates bottomed in February...
396 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 25
- 7 min
Update: Q1 2021 Bank Earnings
US banks are running at income levels that are less than half of a year ago...
307 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 23
- 7 min
Interview: Joe Costello on the Risk to Democracy from Social Media
How do we prevent the Facebooks and Googles from dominating our political life? That is the question we must answer.
469 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 3
- 6 min
Profile: Bank OZK -- It's All About the NIM
Significantly, OZK predicts shrinking CRE loan volumes in 2021....
328 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 29
- 8 min
Update: Commercial & Residential Real Estate, MSRs
Most of midtown Manhattan’s offices and other structures are unused. Commuter volumes are 10% of pre-COVID levels.
700 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 17
- 5 min
Q4 Earnings Update: JPM, Citi & WFC
Unless the FOMC relents and eases up on its massive purchases of Treasury securities and MBS, bank earnings are likely to decline further
296 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 4
- 10 min
Profile: Bank of America
We think that a strong case can be made that to enhance shareholder value, Moynihan and the BAC board ought to spin-off Merrill Lynch...
451 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Dec 28, 2020
- 8 min
Outlook 2021: Financials & Credit Markets
New issue volumes in all of the major securities asset classes other than Treasury debt are trending lower as 2021 begins....
758 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 27, 2020
- 4 min
The Myth of GSE Release
The prospective ejection of the GSEs, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, from government control seems finally to be dead for the next four years.
1,279 views