Two Inflation Narratives; Credit Suisse & Ginnie Mae MSRs
The big take away from Q4 2022 earnings is that credit expenses are headed higher and at a brisk pace
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Fintech
Christopher Whalen
R. Christopher Whalen
- 6 days ago
- 7 min
Why the FT is Wrong About Ally Financial
Ally is still more finance company than bank and really has no core deposit base worthy of the name.
430 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 23
- 6 min
Update: Bank of America
We hear in the channel that regulators are making their views of future loss probabilities very clear in guidance to the top banks
325 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 16
- 7 min
Goldman Drops Restatement; Jamie Dimon Drops the Ball on "Frank"
The Fed’s de facto embrace of inflation encourages misallocation of economic resources on a grand scale....
619 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 13
- 6 min
Update: JPMorganChase & Wells Fargo
But nothing lasts forever in mortgage land or in financials. Stay tuned and pay attention to LT rates and spreads...
430 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Dec 30, 2022
- 9 min
Predictions for the New Year 2023
Will Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac require another federal rescue in 2023 or beyond?
1,137 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Dec 20, 2022
- 5 min
Outliers: CapitalOne, Goldman Sachs & Citigroup
Like most nonbanks (and Goldman Sachs is predominantly a nonbank), volumes are falling and funding costs are rising.
522 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Dec 9, 2022
- 5 min
Blockchain, Crypto & Falling Liquidity
Whether we are talking about corporate credit exposures or housing, the short trade may be the place to be over the next year.
470 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Dec 6, 2022
- 1 min
Bank M2M Losses Surge in Q3 to $347 Billion
Rapidly rising interest rates in Q3 2022 pushed down the tangible capital for the US banking industry to negative $1.9 trillion
433 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 28, 2022
- 6 min
Is JPMorgan Chase Insolvent?
The US banking industry has been rendered insolvent by the Federal Open Market Committee
5,321 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 17, 2022
- 7 min
Extension Risk Threatens US Banks
There are literally dozens of banks in the US made insolvent by the policy moves of the FOMC over the past year.
1,150 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 24, 2022
- 3 min
AOCI: The Winter of Quantitative Easing
Little attention is being paid to the collateral damage being done by the FOMC to the debt capital markets
696 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 17, 2022
- 7 min
Will the FOMC Break the Financials?
Will the market risk created by quantitative tightening (QT) tip over a large bank or nonbank financial firm?
738 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 2, 2022
- 10 min
Large Banks: QT Winners & Losers
A number of readers have asked us to talk about the winners and losers among large banks in the current interest rate environment.
730 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Sep 22, 2022
- 8 min
The Bear Case for Ginnie Mae Issuers
The nightmare scenario in the government loan market is that FHA loan delinquency rises to the point where issuers become insolvent
634 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Sep 13, 2022
- 2 min
IRA Bank Book Q3 2022
We expect to see reasonably strong earnings for commercial lenders in Q3 2022 as loan yields slowly rise...
266 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Sep 8, 2022
- 5 min
Update: The Bull Case for US Financials
Investors who were buying large caps at 2x book value a year ago are now running away from bank stocks just as fundamentals improve...
486 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Aug 24, 2022
- 6 min
Interview: Scott Olson of Community Home Lenders of America
The banks have left the government market. Now Ginnie Mae seems bound and determined to drive the IMBs out of government lending as well
648 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Aug 21, 2022
- 7 min
Interest Rates, FinTechs & MSRs
Interest rates are starting to be very positive, and bank deposit rates are barely moving, so pretense of fintech as bank killer is over
509 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Aug 17, 2022
- 6 min
No End to Conservatorship for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will likely sit in conservatorship indefinitely unless and until Congress acts first.
633 views
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