First Take on FDIC Bank Data
If we assume that asset returns will continue to rise, but that bank funding costs will rise 5x asset returns, then US banks have a problem
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Fintech
Christopher Whalen
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 23
- 7 min
PacWest Bancorp & Fed Hawks
To survive long-term, both WAL and PACW need to get that beta back down below 2 and closer to 1, but the hawks on the FOMC may not cooperate
2,270 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 10
- 8 min
Is USA still a "AAA" Credit? Really? Update: Rithm Capital
When interest rates eventually fall those late vintage mortgage loans with 6% coupons will evaporate like spring snow in the sunshine
1,460 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 1
- 6 min
The False Narrative on First Republic Bank
Until Chairman Powell comes clean with the Congress and the American people, more banks will inevitably fail.
5,040 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 26
- 6 min
Who Killed First Republic Bank?
The Treasury and Fed cannot admit fault for fear of bringing the whole house of cards crashing down.
3,220 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 19
- 7 min
The Bank Deposit Run Is Not Over
The funding crisis affecting US banks is not over and very definitely not limited to smaller banks.
4,515 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 17
- 4 min
Funding & Credit: Q1 2023 Bank Earnings Takeaways
The issue is not whether your bank is getting smaller, but whether credit expenses are being managed as funding costs inevitably rise.
1,104 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 12
- 8 min
Q1 2023 Bank Earnings: Lower for Longer | JPM USB C WFC BAC
Given that the US Treasury is paying 4% for 90-day T-bills, you can see how far banks have to go to become competitive on rates
1,021 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 9
- 12 min
Powell's Duration Trap, Banks and the US Treasury
The Fed by definition cannot make a profit and is always an expense to the Treasury, thus operating losses are a expense to the taxpayer
3,923 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 26
- 10 min
Update: New York Community Bank
We liked the NYCB + Flagstar story prior to the transaction with the FDIC for the assets and deposits of Signature Bank.
1,116 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 17
- 8 min
Mark-to-Market on Bank America; Update on Credit Suisse & Guild Holdings
We recently added Western Alliance (WAL) and GHLD to our portfolio
2,598 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 11
- 6 min
Who Killed Silicon Valley Bank?; The IRA Bank Book Q1 2023
Last week not a single member of the Big Media managed to ask Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about the state of the US banking system
8,864 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 2
- 6 min
RKT Sinks, UWMC Wobbles, RITM Treads Water & Goldman Doubles Down
GS is a securities dealer first and foremost and has no comparative advantage as a bank.
871 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 13
- 8 min
Ginnie Mae - Credit Suisse = ? A Biden MSR Tax? Does BKI + ICE = < 2?
Our view is that the BKI purchase is a horrible deal for ICE shareholders, a value killer of epic proportions
1,009 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 6
- 7 min
Goldman Sachs + Bank of New York Mellon = ?
The risk-adjusted return on capital for BK is negative and probably lower than Goldman, the highest risk large US bank
706 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Feb 3
- 9 min
Two Inflation Narratives; Credit Suisse & Ginnie Mae MSRs
The big take away from Q4 2022 earnings is that credit expenses are headed higher and at a brisk pace
781 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 30
- 7 min
Why the FT is Wrong About Ally Financial
Ally is still more finance company than bank and really has no core deposit base worthy of the name.
899 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 23
- 6 min
Update: Bank of America
We hear in the channel that regulators are making their views of future loss probabilities very clear in guidance to the top banks
515 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 16
- 7 min
Goldman Drops Restatement; Jamie Dimon Drops the Ball on "Frank"
The Fed’s de facto embrace of inflation encourages misallocation of economic resources on a grand scale....
690 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Jan 13
- 6 min
Update: JPMorganChase & Wells Fargo
But nothing lasts forever in mortgage land or in financials. Stay tuned and pay attention to LT rates and spreads...
492 views
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