Record Losses for Mortgage Banks Presage Tough Year Ahead
Is 2023 the year of the Return of the Distressed Loan Trade?
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
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Banks | Markets | Fintech
Christopher Whalen
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 17, 2022
- 7 min
Extension Risk Threatens US Banks
There are literally dozens of banks in the US made insolvent by the policy moves of the FOMC over the past year.
1,151 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 15, 2022
- 6 min
Loan Delinquency, EBOs & Ginnie Mae MSRs
It seems obvious that the reported book value metrics coming from many commercial banks, REITs and mortgage banks are a tad inflated...
692 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 10, 2022
- 5 min
Update: Crypto Fraud Crumbles as Bank Stocks Surge
Crypto has gone from a sort-of juiced up equity strategy to a distressed credit story in just hours.
428 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 7, 2022
- 7 min
Brief: The Return of Home Equity Loans
Every residential mortgage loan made in 2020-2021 is likely to be underwater by the end of 2023
1,275 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 4, 2022
- 5 min
TIAA Sells Everbank; Mortgage Earnings Wrap
The big news this week starts with the poor showing by Rocket Companies (RKT), reporting a loss for Q3 2022 and a big decline in volumes.
273 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Nov 2, 2022
- 6 min
Terminal Rates & Conflicted Economists
The cult of ever falling interest rates goes back 50 years and spans the terms of Fed chairs back to Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker...
668 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 28, 2022
- 7 min
Update: Credit Suisse (CS) & PennyMac Financial (PFSI)
Like COOP, volumes are down dramatically from 2021 but MSR values and cash flows from servicing are rising
843 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 26, 2022
- 4 min
Update: Mr. Cooper (COOP)
Despite the outlook for the industry, COOP continues to be one of the better performing names in our mortgage surveillance group.
269 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 24, 2022
- 3 min
AOCI: The Winter of Quantitative Easing
Little attention is being paid to the collateral damage being done by the FOMC to the debt capital markets
697 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 17, 2022
- 7 min
Will the FOMC Break the Financials?
Will the market risk created by quantitative tightening (QT) tip over a large bank or nonbank financial firm?
739 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 12, 2022
- 7 min
Update: U.S. Bank vs. Bank OZK; Q3 2022 Earnings Setup
How will this above-peer performer from Little Rock do in a Fed-induced recession that rivals 2008 in terms of market losses?
567 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 10, 2022
- 3 min
Will the Fed Pivot or Pause?
The increase in interest rates towards 5% for federal funds may turn out to be permanent for several years
625 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 6, 2022
- 6 min
Nonbank Lenders: The Dead Pool
With the Fed doubling down on rate increases, the pressure on all manner of nonbank finance companies and fintech platforms is growing.
606 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Oct 2, 2022
- 10 min
Large Banks: QT Winners & Losers
A number of readers have asked us to talk about the winners and losers among large banks in the current interest rate environment.
731 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Sep 29, 2022
- 4 min
Update: Switch Inc.
SWCH is performing above the rate of total returns for the data center REITs, according to Nareit
157 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Sep 27, 2022
- 3 min
Short QE, Long Volatility
Until the FOMC raises interest rates to more “normal” levels, we don’t expect actual volatility to decline.
427 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Sep 22, 2022
- 8 min
The Bear Case for Ginnie Mae Issuers
The nightmare scenario in the government loan market is that FHA loan delinquency rises to the point where issuers become insolvent
636 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Sep 18, 2022
- 9 min
Inflation, Politics & Fed Chairmen
As the scale of Fed open market operations grew since 2008, volatility has increased, rendering the adjustment from QE to QT problematic
986 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Sep 13, 2022
- 2 min
IRA Bank Book Q3 2022
We expect to see reasonably strong earnings for commercial lenders in Q3 2022 as loan yields slowly rise...
267 views
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