The Institutional Risk Analyst

The Fed bank stress tests are another sign of magical thinking in Washington.

Ginnie Mae would rather have issuers raise the NPV of the MSR in cash today than take the price risk of holding the whole MSR through time.

Citigroup leads the pack with a net loss rate of 133 basis points (bp) that is almost five times the average for Peer Group 1 at 27 bp.

BMO arguably has the weakest reserve position among the large Canadian banks....

In the 1950s through maybe into the late 1990s, the FOMC could control mortgage interest rates....

How much in synthetic CRT transactions will be done in 2024? Our best guess is many hundreds of billions globally...

Powell won’t hit the two percent target, but he won’t change the target either.

We remind readers that unrealized losses on securities are still a bigger problem for banks than CRE.

Direct lenders are the pawnbrokers of the 21st Century for subprime commercial borrowers, usually firms financed via leveraged buyouts.

The unrealized losses on COVID era securities remain a huge problem for banks large and small, especially if long-term interest rates rise

Obviously, there should be no interest rate cuts by the FOMC without deficit reduction by Congress.

With a budget deficit projected to be $1.8 trillion in 2024, the odds of the FOMC actually controlling inflation are pretty low. 

We think it is reasonable to push expectations of a cut in the target for Fed funds into Q1 2025. 

When NYC is forced to recognize reality, it will already be too late to avoid another fiscal crisis.

Citi is a subprime lender. They should be directly involved in government lending.

Big banks have big CRE exposures, too. So what drives this marvelous progression up the wall of worry?

Are there bank bargains down in the cellar waiting to be discovered?

We think Whitney’s comments about a surge in new lending from Freddie Mac buying home equity loans are poorly considered

The survivors in mortgage finance optimize operations around purchasing loans from brokers/ correspondents, and direct to consumer (DTC)

If the run-of-the-mill Republic First interest rate mark is 13.3% of assets that is not just wiping out one bank’s 8% capital but also FDIC