PacWest Bancorp & Fed Hawks
To survive long-term, both WAL and PACW need to get that beta back down below 2 and closer to 1, but the hawks on the FOMC may not cooperate
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The Institutional Risk Analyst
© 2003-2023 | Whalen Global Advisors LLC All Rights Reserved in All Media | ISSN 2692-1812
Banks | Markets | Fintech
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 21
- 2 min
Mortgage Rates Headed for 7% as Residential Defaults Slowly Rise
We think that further Fed tightening, plus sales of MBS from FDIC and banks generally, may force mortgage rates higher into the 7% range
979 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 17
- 5 min
Banks, Commercial Real Estate & Credit
The Fed's 5.5% increase in short-term interest rates has thrown the pricing for trillions of dollars in real estate into disarray.
1,116 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 15
- 6 min
Fed Asymmetry Threatens Credit Crisis
The price volatility injected into markets by the Fed is a primary reason why the FDIC cannot easily find buyers for smaller banks.
3,804 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 10
- 8 min
Is USA still a "AAA" Credit? Really? Update: Rithm Capital
When interest rates eventually fall those late vintage mortgage loans with 6% coupons will evaporate like spring snow in the sunshine
1,495 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 7
- 6 min
Measuring Powell's Bank Rate Shock
Q: What happens to net-interest margin for banks when the rate of change in funding costs doubles or more in a single quarter?
3,490 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 4
- 4 min
Banks, Interest Rates & Fed Chairs
Imagine how President Joe Biden will react if Chair Powell needs to announce formal limits on access to US bank deposits.
2,411 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- May 1
- 6 min
The False Narrative on First Republic Bank
Until Chairman Powell comes clean with the Congress and the American people, more banks will inevitably fail.
5,149 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 30
- 6 min
Update: Mr. Cooper & PennyMac Financial
Both PFSI and COOP are navigating the current market well, but we have questions about where the former is headed.
1,214 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 26
- 6 min
Who Killed First Republic Bank?
The Treasury and Fed cannot admit fault for fear of bringing the whole house of cards crashing down.
3,260 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 24
- 6 min
Commercial Real Estate & Bank OZK
Banks that do not aggressively reprice liabilities and assets as OZK did in Q1 2023 may be left behind.
1,175 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 19
- 7 min
The Bank Deposit Run Is Not Over
The funding crisis affecting US banks is not over and very definitely not limited to smaller banks.
4,547 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 17
- 4 min
Funding & Credit: Q1 2023 Bank Earnings Takeaways
The issue is not whether your bank is getting smaller, but whether credit expenses are being managed as funding costs inevitably rise.
1,112 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 12
- 8 min
Q1 2023 Bank Earnings: Lower for Longer | JPM USB C WFC BAC
Given that the US Treasury is paying 4% for 90-day T-bills, you can see how far banks have to go to become competitive on rates
1,027 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 9
- 12 min
Powell's Duration Trap, Banks and the US Treasury
The Fed by definition cannot make a profit and is always an expense to the Treasury, thus operating losses are a expense to the taxpayer
4,025 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Apr 3
- 6 min
Update: Charles Schwab (SCHW); Sagent Presentation
Most major banks grew larger during quantitative easing. Now many of these banks will shrink in terms of assets and also earnings in Q1 2023
4,263 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 30
- 6 min
QT, Interest Rates & Bank Solvency
At the Fed, because “confidence” is considered a factor in “policy,” it is OK to fib and obfuscate about the true cost of monetary policy.
2,244 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 26
- 10 min
Update: New York Community Bank
We liked the NYCB + Flagstar story prior to the transaction with the FDIC for the assets and deposits of Signature Bank.
1,130 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 23
- 6 min
FOMC Doubles Down on Market Risk
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell are another bank failure or two away from returning to the private sector.
2,898 views
R. Christopher Whalen
- Mar 21
- 5 min
Winners & Losers in the New Gilded Age
Mark Twain called Washington ''the grand old benevolent National Asylum for the Helpless'' in his classic "The Gilded Age."
1,666 views
Christopher Whalen
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