The Institutional Risk Analyst

So bitcoin is paid for two things: disorder, and inclusion. It is not paid for order that excludes it. That is a very different claim from the ones usually made for and against bitcoin. Its supporters say it wins because governments fail. Its critics say it loses because governments prevail. Both miss the most likely case, in which governments prevail and choose gold.

When the short end obeys and the long end shrugs, that is not policy talking. That is premium, charging by the day. And the plan carries a twist it did not price: the investment boom that is supposed to pay the mortgage is, for now, bidding against the Treasury in its own bond market, hundreds of billions of buildout raised from the same institutional pool that must absorb the wall. The exit ramp charges a toll on the road that leads to it.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated early in the Trump Administration that expanding the stablecoin market will create a "surge in demand for US Treasuries, which back stablecoins," but he was clearly mistaken. Growth in stablecoins has slowed dramatically as the value of bitcoin and other tokens has plummeted. Notice that Bessent has not had much to say on the subject of stablecoins recently as Treasury yields have steadily risen.