The Institutional Risk Analyst

We infer the size of the NDFI portfolio of individual banks by subtracting the aggregate NDFI series of the FDIC from Other Loans & Leases. In 2010 when the FDIC first started gathering the data, NDFI loans were less than a quarter of the “other loans and leases” (OLL) category, but today they are 60% of OLL and growing fast.

The year 2025 was extraordinary period for many reasons, including low credit loss rates and soaring asset values. QE teaches us that high asset prices suppress the cost of credit, until asset values fall. UBS believes defaults in private credit could reach 15%, 3x the peak delinquency rates for bank loans in 2008.